Vici Properties (VICI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.42-0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VICI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
VICI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 14, 2026, VICI Properties L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“VICI LP”), completed the previously announced offering of $900,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.400% Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and $850,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.750% Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes” and, together with the 2031 Notes, the “Notes”). VICI LP intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to repay all or a portion of its outstandi…
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong health and tenant performance. This is important for VICI's value.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue growth is over 5% year-over-year for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below 3% year-over-year for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Adding new tenants strengthens VICI's revenue base and reduces risk. It shows effective execution of growth strategy.
Supportive ifVICI adds new tenants like Clairvest and Club Med, increasing tenant diversity.
Worry ifNo new tenants are added, showing possible slow growth in strategy.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue may show weaker demand and hurt future growth.
Worry ifTotal revenues in Q2 2026 decrease year-over-year by more than 3.5%.
Less concerning ifTotal revenues in Q2 2026 either rise or stay the same compared to last year.
Why it matters: This project shows VICI's growth through smart partnerships.
Supportive ifLook for updates on building progress or new funding for One Beverly Hills.
Worry ifDelays or issues reported in the construction of One Beverly Hills.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $188 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,082 loss on $10,000 · 20.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This $1.5 billion investment could boost VICI's growth and partnerships.
Watch forThe One Beverly Hills project shows progress and increases VICI's revenue streams.
Also watch forIf there are project delays or issues, VICI's returns may drop.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will indicate the health of VICI's portfolio and market position.
Watch forTotal revenues increase year-over-year by more than 5% in the next earnings report.
Also watch forTotal revenues decrease year-over-year or grow less than 3% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Keeping AFFO guidance shows strong performance. This helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifAFFO for full year 2026 stays within the range of $2,675 million to $2,695 million.
Worry ifAFFO guidance is revised down below $2,675 million.
Why it matters: If this goes well, VICI's portfolio will be stronger. This will help make money more steady.
Supportive ifThe merger with Golden Entertainment ends smoothly without big issues.
Worry ifIntegration has big delays or problems that hurt revenue.
Why it matters: The redevelopment is key to VICI's partnership with Club Med. It could enhance revenue and tenant diversity.
Supportive ifConstruction at Carambola Beach Resort starts on time in summer 2026.
Worry ifConstruction delays push the reopening past Q4 2027.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can raise VICI's borrowing costs and affect its financial plans.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.