Vici Properties (VICI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
$25.21-0.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VICI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VICI — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, VICI Properties Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026, and made available supplemental financial and operating information concerning the Company as of September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release and a copy of this supplemental information are furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this…
Why it matters: The real estate sector is mature, and its recent margin trend is near -3%. Faster VICI revenue growth would stand out against that backdrop.
Supportive ifVICI reports Q4 revenue growth above 5.8% year over year.
Worry ifVICI reports Q4 revenue growth at or below 5.8% year over year.
Why it matters: VICI raised its 2026 AFFO per-share range to $2.47–$2.48. Meeting the floor would support its growth record.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 AFFO per share is at least $2.47, within or above the latest $2.47–$2.48 range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 AFFO per share is below $2.47, or VICI cuts its guidance below that level.
Why it matters: AFFO per share grew 4.3% in Q3, slower than in the first two quarters. Another result above 4% would show growth is holding.
Supportive ifA later quarterly release reports AFFO per share growth above 4% year over year.
Worry ifA later quarterly release reports AFFO per share growth at or below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: VICI is funding a $55.2 million resort rebuild with Club Med. A timely reopening would mark progress in its new hospitality partnership.
Supportive ifVICI or Club Med reports construction progress and a reopening on schedule for Q4 2027.
Worry ifConstruction has not started, or the Q4 2027 reopening target is delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $198 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,460 loss on $10,000 · 24.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Closing adds Highfield as a tenant while keeping VICI’s total rent unchanged. Delays or a failed deal would slow tenant diversification.
Watch forThe Highfield lease closes by March 31, 2027, and starts at C$10.7 million in annual rent, with the Century lease cut by the same amount.
Also watch forThe deal is not closed by March 31, 2027, or the lease terms change so total rent falls.