Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.03-0.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.00 → 7.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VIRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $0.24 per share | It pays a steady dividend of $0.24 per share. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.20 per share next year | Dividend per share: $0.24 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.24 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 31, 20260.24 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VIRT is a financial-sector business with results tied to trading activity and the rate environment, so the multi-year view is more cyclical than a steady compounder. The thesis is intact, with recent performance strong, though earnings quality remains fragile and management is assessed as neutral.
The evidence describes VIRT as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low fragility in what is priced in. That suggests the valuation reflects some execution weakness rather than a broad set of severe concerns; confidence in this assessment is medium.
Near term, management’s priorities are on track: net income and diluted EPS were slightly higher in 2026-Q2 than in 2025-Q4, normalized adjusted EPS was stable, and adjusted net trading income rose over that period. However, VIRT missed its most recent quarter and has a run of consecutive misses, so guidance and results remain key risks.
The unfavorable case strengthens if VIRT cuts guidance or if the Fed begins cutting rates from the current level, which the evidence says could weigh on financial firms. The favorable case depends partly on sector bellwethers continuing to report strong earnings and raise guidance, while VIRT sustains trading income and earnings progress.
For the next one to three years, the long-term thesis is intact but rests on continued earnings and trading-income delivery despite fragile execution quality and rate sensitivity. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect EPS near $6.49 in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $5.50 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income growth to sustain or exceed $182.3M | Virtu grew net income from $99.7M to $182.3M in one year. | Broken | net income falls below $150 million next year | Net income: $150.899M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $182.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 31, 2026150,899,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount to peer PE of 12.77 | A supporting condition in Virtu Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 10. | Intact | PE rises above 12 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 8.06x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20268.0593 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.46 → $7.23 · observed estimates
$2.54B → $2.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.46 | $2,539,188,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.46 | $2,539,188,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.46 | $2,539,188,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.46 | $2,539,188,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.46 | $2,539,188,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.98 | $2,713,856,956 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.51 | $2,539,188,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.51 | $2,539,188,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.98 | $2,713,856,956 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.54 | $2,539,188,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.01 | $2,725,714,099 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.01 | $2,725,714,099 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.60 | $2,562,079,700 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.60 | $2,562,079,700 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.01 | $2,725,714,099 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.93 | $2,562,079,700 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.93 | $2,562,079,700 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.93 | $2,562,079,700 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.93 | $2,562,079,700 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.01 | $2,725,714,099 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.01 | $2,725,714,099 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.01 | $2,725,714,099 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.01 | $2,725,714,099 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.01 | $2,725,714,099 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.01 | $2,725,714,099 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.93 | $2,742,988,722 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.98 | $2,767,707,874 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.00 | $2,777,607,874 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.00 | $2,777,607,874 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.00 | $2,777,607,874 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.12 | $2,807,893,588 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.12 | $2,807,893,588 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.12 | $2,806,855,219 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.12 | $2,806,855,219 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.13 | $2,817,482,737 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.13 | $2,817,482,737 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.13 | $2,817,482,737 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.13 | $2,817,482,737 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.13 | $2,817,482,737 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.13 | $2,817,482,737 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.13 | $2,817,482,737 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.13 | $2,817,482,737 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.13 | $2,817,482,737 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.23 | $2,864,104,012 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.