Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$64.43+0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VIRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -25.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VIRT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On July 30, 2026, Virtu Financial, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release setting forth its financial results for its quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company's press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company does not intend for this
Why it matters: Updates on the credit agreement will show how the company handles its debt. This affects financial stability.
Watch forPositive updates on the credit agreement show better terms or less debt.
Also watch forNegative updates show worse terms or more debt.
Why it matters: Growth in Adjusted Net Trading Income shows the company can manage trading well. This is important for future earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted Net Trading Income is over $718 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted Net Trading Income is below $718 million. This suggests possible struggles in trading.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact Virtu's performance. It may indicate broader market weakness.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth dropping below 15% could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This impacts investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,757 loss on $10,000 · 17.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: News on the $400 million loan will show how management is managing debt.
Watch forSuccessful marketing of the term loan with favorable terms.
Also watch forFailure to secure the term loan or unfavorable terms reported.
Why it matters: Managing debt is crucial for financial stability. Changes can signal financial health or risk.
Watch forLong-term debt is now below $2 billion. This shows better financial health.
Also watch forLong-term debt is above $2.1 billion. This suggests possible financial trouble.
Why it matters: If trading income grows over 30%, it shows strong market performance. It also shows good trading strategies.
Supportive ifQ2 trading income growth reported above 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 trading income growth reported below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: The Q3 earnings report will show if the earnings miss is a trend or a one-time issue. Investors will react to the results.
Worry ifQ3 net income is over $280 million. This shows recovery from the earnings miss.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income falls below $280 million, confirming a downward trend in earnings.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good cash flow. It also shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.24 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend drops below $0.24 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase beyond this level could indicate worsening financial health and higher risk.
Worry ifTotal long-term debt is above $2.1 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal long-term debt remains below $2.1 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the quarterly dividend of $0.24 on time.
Worry ifThe company suspends or reduces the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend payout signal management's confidence in cash flow and financial health. Consistency is key for investor trust.
Watch forThe dividend payout is $0.24 per share. This shows commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Also watch forThe dividend payout is below $0.24 per share. This suggests possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Managing debt levels is crucial for financial health. Changes could impact future growth.
Watch forTotal long-term debt decreases from $2,051.1 million after the term loan marketing.
Also watch forTotal long-term debt increases beyond $2,051.1 million.
Why it matters: Debt actions will show how the company handles its finances.
Watch forThey announced more debt reduction or refinancing plans.
Also watch forNo new actions were taken, raising concerns about debt levels.