Valero Energy (VLO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-07-07
$266.15-1.54%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $266.15. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $266 VLO trades at 19× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median, but our blended $231 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $203–$312. Not investment advice.
$203.00 – $312.00 (median $263.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $20.55/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $263.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $76.56 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $63.60 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $168.61 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $77.80 | 8.5 | 11.41 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $307.70 | 16.9 | 18.22 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $333.81 | 23.9 | 13.98 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $659.68 | 1.6 | 418.83 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $86.57 | 6.2 | 13.98 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $111.94 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $244.99 | 17.5 | 13.98 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $370.43 | 23.9 | 15.51 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $122.89 | 16.9 | 7.28 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $507.98 | 23.9 | 21.27 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $649.88 | 1.6 | 412.61 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 3Y | $131.74 | 6.2 | 21.27 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $372.82 | 17.5 | 21.27 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $66.64 | 16.9 | 3.95 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $502.94 | 23.9 | 21.06 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $643.43 | 1.6 | 408.51 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $130.43 | 6.2 | 21.06 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $369.12 | 17.5 | 21.06 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.