Valero Energy (VLO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$370.72+0.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
VLO — officer change
Dated 2026-05-08
Senior Vice President Product Supply, Trading and Wholesale — Eric A. Fisher: Eric A. Fisher intends to retire and is transitioning responsibilities as part of Valero’s succession plan.
Why it matters: A strong Q3 result would show good operations and high market demand.
Supportive ifAdjusted net income for Q3 2026 exceeds $3.7 billion.
Worry ifAdjusted net income for Q3 2026 is below $3 billion.
Why it matters: A cash dividend increase would show strong financial health and support for shareholders.
Supportive ifThere is an official announcement about an increase in the cash dividend.
Worry ifNo announcement or a decrease in the cash dividend.
Why it matters: Valero needs to keep investing money. This helps the company grow and stay stable.
Supportive ifManagement says capital investments are on track or will rise from $448 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCapital investments drop a lot or go below $404 million, which is needed for the business.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows good financial health. It also shows care for stockholders.
Supportive ifValero announces a cash dividend of $1.20 per share or more each quarter.
Worry ifValero cuts the quarterly cash dividend below $1.20 per share.
Why it matters: Higher cash returns signal strong financial health and commitment to stockholder value.
Supportive ifCash returns to stockholders exceed $2.6 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash returns fall below $2.6 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Valero needs to work on low-carbon projects. This helps with their long-term plans and emissions goals.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new low-carbon project or partnership by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo new updates or delays in existing low-carbon projects by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A return to revenue growth would indicate a positive shift in the sector's performance.
Watch forRevenue growth in Q3 2026 exceeds 2% year over year.
Also watch forRevenue growth in Q3 2026 remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Staying on track with capital investments helps future growth. It also improves operations.
Supportive ifValero plans to invest around $425 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCapital investments fall below $350 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower capital investments can lead to slower growth. They may also cause problems in operations.
Worry ifCapital investments were less than $350 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital investments remain at or above $350 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Regular capital investments show good financial management. They also help with growth plans.
Supportive ifTotal capital investments for Q3 2026 are about $425 million or more. They are on track for $1.7 billion this year.
Worry ifCapital investments drop below $300 million in Q3 2026. This suggests possible cutbacks.
Why it matters: Steady throughput volumes show good performance. They also show demand for refined products.
Supportive ifRefining throughput volumes are over 3 million barrels per day in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRefining throughput volumes drop below 2.9 million barrels per day in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This project is key for Valero. It will boost refining capacity and product quality. Finishing it could make operations run better.
Supportive ifThe project will finish on time. Operations will start as planned in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe project faces delays or is not completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Going above this level shows strong performance. It also shows high demand for Valero's products.
Supportive ifValero's net income for Q3 2026 is over $3 billion for its stockholders.
Worry ifNet income falls below $2.5 billion for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping this dividend shows Valero is strong. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe quarterly cash dividend remains at $1.20 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut below $1.20 per share in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $299 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,209 loss on $10,000 · 12.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.