Valero Energy (VLO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$351.23-3.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VLO — officer change
Dated 2026-09-18
Director — Matthew Audette: The filing discloses the routine election of a new director to the board and appointment to the audit committee, which is a standard governance event rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: The project is now running and was finished on time and within budget. Higher output would show it is working as planned.
Supportive ifValero reports that St. Charles makes more alkylate and gasoline after the project starts running.
Worry ifValero reports the unit is not running as planned, or output of higher-value products has not grown.
Why it matters: Near-record use helped drive strong Q3 results. A sharp drop could signal weaker plant operations.
Worry ifQ4 refinery throughput falls below 2.9 million barrels per day. Or management reports use well below Q3 levels.
Less concerning ifQ4 refinery throughput is at least 3.0 million barrels per day, with use near record levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $372 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,361 loss on $10,000 · 23.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.