Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Valero Energy (VLO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$351.23-3.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
44.82 → 52.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VLO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital investments near $448 million per quarter | Capital investments remain steady, with $448 million spent in Q1 2026. | Improving | quarterly capital investments fall below $400 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VLO is a cyclical energy business, meaning results can shift with changing industry conditions. Its current long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry and management delivering on important operating priorities.
The valuation evidence describes VLO as cheap versus peers, while the model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, and the expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to a clear case that market expectations are unusually low.
Near term, recent earnings beats and strong refinery operations support the business, including record quarterly ethanol production and near-record refinery utilization in 2026-Q3. Management completed the St. Charles optimization project on schedule and within budget, while balance-sheet and stockholder-return progress is mixed. The near-term risk of a miss is rated low, but a guidance cut or weaker sector results could weigh on the outlook.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on VLO maintaining strong operations and avoiding a guidance cut. Results and guidance from MPC, PSX, and DINO are important signals: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. The evidence also notes a history of deep misses, which keeps execution risk relevant.
For the 1-to-3-year view, VLO’s thesis remains intact, with strong recent performance and a supportive sector backdrop balanced by cyclical and execution risks. The central question is whether operating strength and sector conditions persist. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company raised its dividend by 6%, showing strong cash returns to shareholders. |
| Intact |
| no dividend increase or cut within next year |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “On January 22, 2026, Valero announced an increase of its quarterly cash dividend on common stock from $1.13 per share to $1.20 per share, demonstrating its strong financial position and commitment to a growing dividend.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Complete St. Charles FCC Unit optimization by Q3 2026 | It plans to complete a refinery upgrade by Q3 2026 to boost valuable product output. | Intact | FCC Unit optimization not completed by Q3 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Charles Refinery on schedule and within budget.” “The project is now operational and is expected to enhance the refinery’s ability to produce higher-value products.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Manage refining costs amid California carbon rule changes | A primary condition in Valero Energy's published investment case. The stated target is Refining costs stable or growing less than 5% annually. | Intact | Refining costs rise more than 5% due to regulation | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$24.22 → $52.70 · observed estimates
$124.47B → $145.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $24.22 | $124,467,178,730 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $24.88 | $124,467,178,730 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $24.88 | $124,467,178,730 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $24.88 | $124,467,178,730 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $24.88 | $124,467,178,730 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $25.12 | $124,467,178,730 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $25.12 | $124,467,178,730 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $25.21 | $123,171,201,220 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $26.06 | $125,407,220,658 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $27.35 | $124,212,946,090 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $27.35 | $124,212,946,090 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $27.82 | $124,849,735,450 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $27.72 | $126,273,174,160 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $27.72 | $126,273,174,160 | 19 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $26.67 | $126,534,720,658 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $29.28 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $29.28 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $29.28 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $29.28 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $29.28 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $30.52 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $30.64 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $30.64 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $30.64 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $30.64 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $30.64 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $30.64 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $30.64 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $30.43 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $30.43 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $31.21 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $31.21 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $31.21 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $31.21 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $33.25 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $33.25 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $34.21 | $128,726,088,958 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $34.21 | $128,726,088,958 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $35.60 | $128,726,088,958 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $35.60 | $128,726,088,958 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $35.60 | $128,726,088,958 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $38.14 | $131,576,881,465 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $38.14 | $131,576,881,465 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $38.14 | $131,576,881,465 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $38.14 | $131,576,881,465 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $38.14 | $131,576,881,465 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $38.14 | $131,576,881,465 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $38.14 | $131,576,881,465 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $38.14 | $131,576,881,465 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $38.33 | $131,576,881,465 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $42.01 | $132,528,253,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $42.01 | $132,528,253,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $42.01 | $132,528,253,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $42.01 | $132,528,253,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $42.01 | $132,528,253,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $42.01 | $132,528,253,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $42.01 | $132,528,253,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $42.01 | $132,528,253,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $42.01 | $132,528,253,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $43.11 | $134,291,993,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $44.05 | $136,191,893,065 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $44.82 | $136,191,893,065 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $44.82 | $136,191,893,065 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $45.32 | $136,191,893,065 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $45.25 | $136,195,293,066 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $46.24 | $136,196,401,785 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $44.07 | $137,183,701,785 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $44.07 | $137,183,701,785 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $44.07 | $137,183,701,785 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $44.07 | $137,183,701,785 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $45.56 | $144,590,749,262 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $46.20 | $144,590,749,262 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $46.20 | $144,590,749,262 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $46.20 | $144,590,749,262 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $46.20 | $144,590,749,262 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $46.43 | $144,590,749,262 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $47.39 | $144,320,349,262 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $47.95 | $145,362,149,262 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $48.03 | $146,372,229,262 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $49.20 | $142,346,867,080 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $51.40 | $146,429,932,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $51.40 | $146,429,932,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $51.40 | $146,429,932,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $51.40 | $146,429,932,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $52.80 | $145,681,832,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $52.80 | $145,681,832,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $52.80 | $145,681,832,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $52.80 | $145,681,832,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $52.78 | $145,681,832,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $52.78 | $145,681,832,223 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $52.75 | $145,440,969,247 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $52.70 | $145,440,969,247 | 11 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
5 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.