Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.29+7.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VNO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $300M share repurchase program | The company has a $300 million share buyback program underway. | Intact | Buyback program is halted or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a rate-sensitive real estate investment, not yet a clear durable-growth story. Its long-term thesis has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable after recent earnings beats, but the overall state remains watch because financial performance is weak relative to its industry.
VNO is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is small, suggesting limited difference between current expectations and the valuation model. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually fragile setup.
Near term, management has delivered on priorities including share repurchases, the Park Avenue Plaza acquisition, and refinancing, and recent results included two earnings beats. The broader record remains weak and loss-making, however, and the stated miss risk is 34%, with a history of misses across recent quarters.
Over the next few quarters, lower interest rates could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weakness in sector peers could remove that support. Another earnings beat could extend positive momentum, but the multi-year thesis still depends on stronger financial performance and continued execution.
Over a 1-3 year view, VNO has a mildly improving but still unproven thesis: peer-relative cheapness and management execution are offset by weak fundamentals and sector sensitivity. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Vornado Realty Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or improve current debt cost and maturity profile. |
| Improving |
| Debt costs rise materially or refinancing fails |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Integrate Park Avenue Plaza acquisition successfully | It recently bought a 49% stake in Park Avenue Plaza valued at $1.1 billion. | Improving | Acquisition fails to generate expected earnings or synergies | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 7% annually | A primary condition in Vornado Realty Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year | Revenue growth: 3.08% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 2, 20263.076262 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.25 → $-0.29 · observed estimates
$2.00B → $2.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.28 | $2,067,930,385 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.28 | $2,067,930,385 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.28 | $2,067,930,385 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.28 | $2,067,930,385 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.25 | $2,000,193,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.31 | $2,015,728,600 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.30 | $2,001,282,109 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.30 | $2,006,405,537 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.30 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.30 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.16 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.01 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.01 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.01 | $2,069,831,892 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.01 | $2,075,021,885 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,576 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,637 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.29 | $2,081,817,637 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.