Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.59+0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VNO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VNO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-09
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 9, 2026, Vornado Realty Trust (the “Company”), the general partner of Vornado Realty L.P., issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. That press release referred to supplemental data that is available on the Company’s website. That press release and the supplemental data are attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by referenc…
Why it matters: Refinancing can change interest costs and cash flow.
Watch forManagement says they got new loans with lower interest rates.
Also watch forManagement says interest rates are higher on the new loans.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can recover from the recent miss. A strong performance could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings exceed analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ2 earnings miss expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: More leasing activity shows higher demand for office space and success.
Supportive ifLeasing activity exceeds 400,000 square feet in New York office space.
Worry ifLeasing activity drops below 300,000 square feet in New York office space.
Why it matters: Strong leasing activity helps revenue and occupancy rates. These are key for Vornado's success.
Supportive ifLeasing activity exceeds 3 million square feet in Q2 2026.
Worry ifLeasing activity falls below 2.5 million square feet in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery in the real estate sector. This would benefit Vornado's performance.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable or rising occupancy rates show strong demand and good leasing.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates in New York offices rise above 91.2%.
Worry ifOccupancy rates are under 88.8%. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company continues to struggle after the Q1 miss.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings report shows a net loss greater than $22.8 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 earnings report shows a net income or a smaller loss.
Why it matters: Closing the deal shows Vornado's growth plan and improves its portfolio.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of Park Avenue Plaza is completed as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close.
Why it matters: Completing the share buyback program may show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifVornado completed its share buyback program and met the $300 million goal.
Worry ifThe share repurchase program is not finished. This shows possible worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: Higher FFO per share means better operations and more cash flow.
Supportive ifFFO per share exceeds $0.74 in the next quarter.
Worry ifFFO per share falls below $0.67 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing the $300 million program shows good returns. It also shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifThe share buyback program will finish by Q4 2026. This shows good capital use.
Worry ifIf less than $300 million is repurchased by Q4 2026, it shows weak returns.
Why it matters: If NOI growth is below 5.4%, it may show weak demand or problems in Vornado's properties.
Worry ifNOI growth reported below 5.4% for Q2 2026 compared to the previous year.
Less concerning ifNOI growth is above 5.4%. This suggests strong performance and demand for properties.
Why it matters: Stable or rising FFO shows better performance and financial health.
Watch forFFO for the next quarter shows growth above $144 million.
Also watch forFFO for the next quarter drops below $130 million.
Why it matters: A higher FFO per share would show continued growth and strong leasing activity. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 FFO per share is over $0.74. This shows strong operational performance.
Worry ifQ3 FFO per share falls below $0.67, suggesting weakening performance.
Why it matters: The sale could provide a significant gain and improve liquidity. This would support future investments.
Supportive ifThe sale of Rego Park I by Alexander's will finish by Q3 2026.
Worry ifIf the sale is delayed past Q3 2026, there may be asset management issues.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show management's confidence. They can also help shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says the $300 million share buyback program is making progress. Many shares are bought back.
Worry ifIf no more shares are bought back, it may show a lack of confidence.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates mean more demand for office space. This leads to better leasing.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates are over 90.8%. This shows better leasing performance.
Worry ifIf occupancy rates drop or stay the same, leasing may still face challenges.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $357 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,123 loss on $10,000 · 41.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.