Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.29+7.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VNO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VNO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-09
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 9, 2026, Vornado Realty Trust (the “Company”), the general partner of Vornado Realty L.P., issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. That press release referred to supplemental data that is available on the Company’s website. That press release and the supplemental data are attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by referenc…
Why it matters: The loan had a $48 million balance and was due in October 2026. Its extension depends on loan value and debt income tests.
Watch forA company filing confirms the 15-month extension was approved for the $48 million loan.
Also watch forA company filing reports the extension was denied, or the loan was not repaid at its October 2026 due date.
Why it matters: Q2 same-store NOI rose 9.8% year over year. A similar rise would show that property income gains continued.
Supportive ifThe next results show same-store NOI growth above 9.8% year over year.
Worry ifThe next results show same-store NOI growth at or below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: New York office occupancy edged up to 90.8% in Q2 from 90.3%. A drop below the earlier level would reverse that gain.
Worry ifA later company update says fewer than 90.3% of New York offices are occupied.
Less concerning ifA later company update says New York office occupancy is 90.8% or higher.
Why it matters: The loan comes due in January 2027. A clear plan would settle a near-term funding question tied to the site's development.
Watch forA company filing says the loan was repaid or extended on the stated terms. The development plan remains in place.
Also watch forA company filing says the loan was not repaid or extended by its January 2027 due date.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $355 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,213 loss on $10,000 · 32.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted FFO per share rose to $0.67 in Q2 from $0.56 a year ago. Another rise would show that earnings growth continued.
Supportive ifThe Q3 release reports adjusted FFO per diluted share above $0.67.
Worry ifThe Q3 release reports adjusted FFO per diluted share below $0.67.