Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Voya Financial (VOYA)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$98.40-5.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.45 → 11.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VOYA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share | Dividends increased to $0.47 per share in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.45 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.47 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.47 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VOYA is a financial company with growth in its Retirement and Investment Management businesses, alongside efforts to reduce costs and return capital. The long-term thesis is intact, though fresh earnings weakened the signal and the earnings-quality assessment is fragile.
Valuation is neutral, with VOYA at a modest premium to peers and expectations broadly aligned with the valuation evidence. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility rather than a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, the latest quarter missed expectations, and company momentum and the composite insight weakened sharply after earnings. Over the multi-year view, Retirement and Investment Management assets have grown, while efficiency actions and capital deployment remain on track; the evidence also points to short-term severance costs.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current level could weigh on VOYA and the broader financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum, while execution in VOYA’s growth and cost priorities remains central.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on business growth and cost discipline continuing despite fragile earnings quality and a recent miss. The thesis remains intact, but the latest results make follow-through important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Voya grows net income steadily, reaching $182 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| Net income falls below $156 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $209M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $182 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026209,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income | Operating income rose to $230 million in 2026-Q1. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $173 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $34M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $230 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202634,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue growth | A primary condition in Voya Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >= -1% YoY. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below -1% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.27 → $11.38 · observed estimates
$8.14B → $8.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.27 | $8,138,962,912 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.31 | $8,138,954,870 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.28 | $8,140,465,412 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.31 | $8,138,954,870 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.31 | $8,138,954,870 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.31 | $8,138,954,870 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.28 | $8,140,465,412 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.28 | $8,140,465,412 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.28 | $8,140,465,412 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.28 | $8,140,465,412 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.31 | $8,138,954,870 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.31 | $8,138,954,870 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.28 | $8,140,465,412 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.31 | $8,138,954,870 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.33 | $8,140,465,409 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.40 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.40 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.40 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.40 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.40 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.43 | $8,149,390,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.43 | $8,149,751,536 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.43 | $8,149,751,536 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.43 | $8,149,751,536 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.43 | $8,149,751,536 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.43 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.43 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.43 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.43 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.43 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.45 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.44 | $8,149,790,056 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.43 | $8,097,129,004 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.42 | $8,097,129,004 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.41 | $8,097,129,004 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.41 | $8,097,129,004 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.43 | $8,097,129,004 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.43 | $8,097,129,004 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.40 | $8,090,329,004 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.40 | $8,090,329,004 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.40 | $8,090,329,004 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.40 | $8,085,374,832 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.40 | $8,085,374,832 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.39 | $8,085,374,832 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.39 | $8,085,374,832 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.38 | $8,085,374,832 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.38 | $8,085,374,832 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.37 | $8,072,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.37 | $8,072,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.37 | $8,072,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.37 | $8,072,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.37 | $8,072,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.37 | $8,072,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.35 | $8,066,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.35 | $8,066,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.35 | $8,066,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.35 | $8,066,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.35 | $8,066,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.35 | $8,066,843,012 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.37 | $8,102,151,069 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.38 | $8,102,151,069 | 8 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.