Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Vera Bradley Inc (VRA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.98-7.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VRA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit and SG&A rates improve to reduce operating loss | Management plans to improve gross profit and cut costs. | Improving | Gross profit and SG&A rates do not improve or worsen in FY2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround thesis, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view has improved as revenue, margins, and direct sales have strengthened, but the evidence is still mixed and the thesis remains in watch status.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and its valuation score has fallen recently. The model has low confidence, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain demanding relative to the evidence; priced-in fragility is low.
Near term, management is on track with its fiscal 2027 revenue range and priorities to improve margins and grow direct sales. Recent results show sequential revenue growth, higher gross margin, and an operating result that improved from a loss to a profit, though overall financial performance remains weak and a guidance cut is a key risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue stabilization, margin improvement, and direct sales growth. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while results and guidance from NKE, DECK, and CROX could signal whether the broader sector backdrop remains supportive.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VRA’s turnaround has early operating evidence behind it, but elevated risk and below-industry performance leave the thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New leadership and partnerships may help the turnaround. |
| Intact |
| Major leadership changes or failure to execute turnaround plan |
Qualitative: Turnaround progress confirmed, no major leadership disruption Q2 2027 earnings beat, direct sales surge, CEO confirms progress, stable leadership despite minor board changes. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes in the $255M-$270M range for fiscal 2027 | A primary condition in Vera Bradley Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $255 million and <= $270 million total revenue. | Intact | Total revenue falls below $255 million in FY2027 | Revenue: $71.649M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $255 million and <= $270 million total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 15, 202671,649,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.03 → $0.11 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.03 | $274,813,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.03 | $276,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.03 | $276,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.03 | $276,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.03 | $276,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.03 | $276,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.03 | $276,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.03 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.11 | $276,209,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.