Vera Bradley Inc (VRA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.35+2.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
VRA — officer change
Dated 2026-07-24
The company established severance agreements for certain executives.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into financial health and progress toward targets. Investors will react to the results.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations with revenue above $270M.
Also watch forEarnings miss expectations with revenue below $255M.
Why it matters: This report gives insights into revenue trends and how the company is doing. It helps check the turnaround progress.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and improved margins.
Also watch forEarnings report shows ongoing losses and falling revenues.
Why it matters: Missing the revenue target shows the business is still having problems.
Worry ifQ1 revenue reported below $255 million.
Less concerning ifQ1 revenue meets or exceeds $255 million.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change the company's path and stability. This might affect investor trust.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new executive with a strong background in retail.
Also watch forNo new executive is announced. More departures may happen.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$232 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $646 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,020 loss on $10,000 · 40.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better gross profit is important for financial health. It affects how much money is made.
Supportive ifGross profit reported above $30M in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit reported below $25M, showing further decline.
Why it matters: Customer growth in direct channels shows the brand is getting more popular.
Supportive ifDirect channel customer growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifDirect channel customer growth is flat or down. This shows brand weakness.
Why it matters: Improving gross profit margin shows better cost management and sales performance. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves from 51.8% in Q1 fiscal 2027.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines from 51.8% in Q1 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue shows the company is stabilizing and growing. It will indicate progress towards the $255M-$270M target.
Supportive ifQ1 fiscal 2027 revenue meets or exceeds $55.7 million.
Worry ifQ1 fiscal 2027 revenue falls below $55.7 million.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect plans and stability. Tharp's leaving raises worries.
Worry ifA new executive is appointed with a strong track record.
Less concerning ifNo new leaders are named and no more departures happen.
Why it matters: The termination could affect investor confidence and stock control. It may signal a shift in corporate governance.
Watch forNo new control problems appear. Stock performance stays steady after termination.
Also watch forStock becomes more volatile or share price drops a lot after termination.
Why it matters: A long-time board member left. This may change the company's direction and stability.
Watch forNew plans were announced. They match the company's goals.
Also watch forThere are no new plans or a delay in the strategy.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is recovering. This is important for understanding future success.
Watch forEarnings show big gains in revenue and smaller losses.
Also watch forEarnings show ongoing losses and no growth in revenue.
Why it matters: A better gross profit margin is important for making more money. It shows better cost control and sales.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves to above 51.8% in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 51.8%. This shows cost management is getting worse.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue growth is key for Vera Bradley's turnaround. It shows the success of their strategic initiatives.
Supportive ifQ1 revenue is over $55.7 million. This shows steady growth.
Worry ifQ1 revenue falls below $55 million, suggesting a return to decline.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean improved cost management and pricing. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifGross margin improves by more than 430 basis points year-over-year.
Worry ifGross margin improvement is under 430 basis points. This shows ongoing cost pressures.
Why it matters: A big drop in operating loss shows good cost control. It also shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating loss improves by more than 50% compared to the prior year.
Worry ifOperating loss improves by less than 50%. This suggests there are still challenges.
Why it matters: Project Sunshine aims to stabilize the business. Its success will be reflected in sales growth.
Watch forSales growth attributed to Project Sunshine exceeds 10% in the next quarter.
Also watch forSales growth from Project Sunshine is below 5%. This shows a limited impact.