Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.09-10.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VRCA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS loss narrows from -$1.73 in FY26 | A supporting condition in Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss > -$1.73 but trending less negative. | Improving | EPS loss worsens beyond -$1.73 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.62 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss > -$1.73 but trending less negative. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-0.62 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making commercial growth and clinical development story, not an established compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: YCANTH sales are growing, but recent financial performance has lagged its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to VRCA being cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s baseline; confidence in that assessment is low. The priced-in measure is tagged justified, and no fragility gates fired, but neither signal removes the risk of weak execution.
Near term, YCANTH commercial progress is encouraging: applicator units grew about 46% year over year and 28% sequentially in Q2 2026, while product revenue rose from $4.3 million in Q1 to $5.1 million in Q2. The common-warts Phase 3 program and VP-315 development are progressing, though both remain watch items; the August earnings miss and elevated chance of missing the next print add near-term uncertainty.
The multi-year view depends on continued YCANTH sales and market-penetration growth, plus progress in the clinical programs, including common-warts data expected in mid-2027. A guidance cut or weaker employment data could weigh on the business outlook, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VRCA’s thesis combines early commercial growth and clinical progress with losses, weak recent performance, and high execution risk. The key question is whether commercial gains and development milestones can build on their current progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves from -$9.7 million in Q1 2026 |
| The company tries to improve its operating income from a loss of $9.7 million. |
| Broken |
| Operating loss worsens beyond -$9.7 million in Q1 2026 |
Operating income: $-13.097M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$9.7 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-13,097,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $30 million in 2025 | A primary condition in Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $30.48 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $30 million in FY25 | Revenue: $5.862M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30.48 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20265,862,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.92 → $-1.34 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.24 | $46,258,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.24 | $46,258,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.24 | $46,258,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.24 | $46,258,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.24 | $46,258,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.24 | $46,258,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.24 | $46,258,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.92 | $46,260,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.45 | $39,686,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.45 | $39,686,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.45 | $39,686,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.45 | $39,686,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.45 | $39,686,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.45 | $39,686,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.45 | $39,686,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.45 | $39,686,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.45 | $39,686,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.34 | $39,216,714 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.