Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.30-1.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRCA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 21.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 94.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VRCA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (the “ Registrant ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and six months ended June 30, 2026, as well as information regarding a conference call to discuss these financial results and the Registrant’s recent corporate highlights. This press release has been furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is making more money.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth higher than the previous quarter.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue decline compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Starting the second trial is a key step in the development of YCANTH for common warts. It signals progress in the pipeline.
Supportive ifThe second Phase 3 trial for common warts will start on time in mid-2026.
Worry ifDelay in announcing the second Phase 3 trial initiation beyond mid-2026.
Why it matters: Approval would open a new market for YCANTH, boosting revenue potential. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifWatch for news about approval from Japanese health officials.
Worry ifWatch for a delay or rejection of the approval by Japanese health officials.
Why it matters: The launch in Japan is a big chance for YCANTH to grow outside the U.S.
Supportive ifThe company shows strong sales from the YCANTH launch in Japan.
Worry ifSales from the Japan launch fail to meet initial expectations.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$287 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $836 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,187 loss on $10,000 · 51.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive data could boost interest in VP-315 and support future funding. This is important for the company's growth.
Supportive ifThey will share good data from the Phase 2 study at the dermatology meeting.
Worry ifThe presentation shows weak data or no important findings.
Why it matters: Continued growth in YCANTH sales is key for Verrica's financial health. Strong sales support the company's market position.
Supportive ifQ3 YCANTH product revenue grows more than 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 YCANTH product revenue growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is vital for financial health. A better result would signal progress.
Supportive ifOperating income improves from -$9.715 million in Q1 to less negative in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse, staying below -$9.715 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Completing enrollment is key for moving forward with the trial. This could lead to a new market for YCANTH.
Supportive ifThe company announces that enrollment for the Phase 3 trial is completed.
Worry ifEnrollment is taking more time than we thought.
Why it matters: Revenue growth signals progress in product sales and market acceptance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue exceeds $5.023 million, showing improvement from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is still below $5.023 million. This shows sales are still hard.
Why it matters: Continued growth in YCANTH sales shows demand and market penetration. This is key for revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 YCANTH dispensed applicator units increase year over year by more than 40%.
Worry ifQ3 2026 YCANTH dispensed applicator units growth is less than 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Advancing VP-315 could lead to new treatment options for basal cell carcinoma. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished the work for Phase 3 of VP-315.
Worry ifManagement delays or stops the work for Phase 3 of VP-315.
Why it matters: A longer cash runway helps keep operations going. This is important for stability.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the cash will last until 2028 with the new credit deal.
Worry ifManagement says the cash runway will not last until 2028.
Why it matters: Topline data will show if YCANTH can expand its market. This could lead to more revenue.
Watch forTopline data from the Phase 3 common warts program shows positive results.
Also watch forTopline data from the Phase 3 common warts program shows negative results.