Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRCA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.09-10.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRCA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -82.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 25.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 107.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
VRCA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (the “ Registrant ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and six months ended June 30, 2026, as well as information regarding a conference call to discuss these financial results and the Registrant’s recent corporate highlights. This press release has been furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of…
Why it matters: Q2 U.S. product revenue rose 18.7% from Q1. Another increase would support continued sales growth.
Supportive ifQ3 U.S. YCANTH net product revenue exceeds $5.1 million.
Worry ifQ3 U.S. YCANTH net product revenue is below $5.1 million.
Why it matters: Q2 included a $1.7 million legal settlement charge and a net loss of $13.2 million. Q3 results will show whether losses ease.
Watch forQ3 net loss is below $13.2 million and Verrica reports no new settlement charge of similar size.
Also watch forQ3 net loss exceeds $13.2 million or Verrica reports another settlement charge of $1.7 million or more.
Why it matters: Management says full access could extend cash into 2028. Facility use and updated cash timing will test that claim.
Watch forVerrica says it can access the facility and expects its cash to last into 2028.
Also watch forVerrica says less money is available for facilities, or its cash may run out before 2028.
Why it matters: The common warts trials could widen YCANTH's use. A delay or enrollment setback could push back that chance.
Watch forVerrica says COVE-2 enrollment continues and COVE-3 moves forward. Mid-2027 data timing is unchanged.
Also watch forVerrica reports a trial delay or moves the expected data date beyond mid-2027.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$262 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $822 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,604 loss on $10,000 · 66.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Verrica says it is preparing this Phase 2 asset for Phase 3. A trial plan would show the next step is set.
Supportive ifVerrica names a Phase 3 start window or trial design for VP-315.
Worry ifVerrica pauses Phase 3 readiness or reports that it will not advance VP-315.
Why it matters: Q2 units grew 46.1% year over year. More growth would show that demand is still rising.
Supportive ifQ3 dispensed units exceed 19,626, the Q2 total.
Worry ifQ3 dispensed units fall below 19,626.