Verisign (VRSN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$292.08-0.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRSN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers
VRSN — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-26
Other Events. On June 18, 2026 , VeriSign, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, BofA Securities, Inc. and U.S. Bancorp Investments, Inc., with respect to a registered offering (the “Offering”) of $550 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.100% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). The Underwriting Agreement is filed as Exhibit 1.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The Offering has been regi…
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show that management trusts the stock. A slowdown may mean caution.
Supportive ifVerisign bought back at least $200 million in shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Dividends mean the company is doing well. They also show care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a cash dividend of $0.81 per share or higher.
Worry ifNo cash dividend announced or a decrease in the dividend amount.
Why it matters: Lower cash flow may show problems in operations and could affect future dividends.
Worry ifQ3 cash flow from operations drops below $200 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash flow from operations remains above $200 million.
Why it matters: The fee increase may affect renewal rates and overall revenue. It’s crucial for future earnings.
Watch forRenewal rates for .com domains are over 75% after the fee increase on November 1, 2026.
Also watch forRenewal rates for .com domains drop below 75% after the fee increase.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,641 loss on $10,000 · 26.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The launch of .web could attract new customers and increase revenue. Delays or issues could hurt growth.
Supportive ifSuccessful launch of .web domains through the registrar channel by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifDelays or issues reported in the launch of .web domains.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations is key to Verisign's financial health. It supports ongoing investments and dividends.
Supportive ifQ2 cash flow from operations exceeds $272 million.
Worry ifQ2 cash flow from operations falls below $250 million.
Why it matters: The fee increase may change renewal rates. It may also affect total revenue from domains.
Watch forThe wholesale fee for .com domains goes up from $10.26 to $10.97.
Also watch forFee increase is postponed or canceled.
Why it matters: Growth in domain registrations is key for Verisign's revenue. A strong increase shows demand for their services.
Supportive ifQ3 domain name registrations increase year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ3 domain name registrations grow less than 3% year over year.
Why it matters: The launch of the .web domain could attract new customers and drive revenue growth.
Supportive ifA press release says .web domains are now available through their registrar.
Worry ifNo announcement regarding the .web domain launch by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks shows that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the current $1.50 billion limit.
Worry ifNo new announcements regarding share repurchases by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Higher renewal rates show that customers are happy and revenue is stable.
Watch forQ3 renewal rates for .com and .net exceed 76%.
Also watch forQ3 renewal rates fall below 75%.