Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$66.79-11.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VSAT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure near $975M | A supporting condition in Viasat, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Capex between $950M and $1B. | Intact | Capex exceeds $1.1B or falls below $900M in fiscal 2027 | Capital expenditures: $218.928M FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Capex between $950M and $1B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026218,928,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a capital-intensive, loss-making business with an execution-dependent growth thesis, rather than a proven compounder. The thesis state is intact, with medium confidence, while elevated risk and stagnant revenue leave important questions unresolved.
VSAT is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation assessment has weakened recently and the expectations gap is substantial. The evidence flags expensive valuation as a concern, but overall fragility is low; the snapshot does not specify exactly what growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, revenue has been nearly flat across the reported quarters, while management is lowering planned capital spending and expects positive free cash flow in FY2027. Recent earnings results have been mixed, and erratic, declining earnings surprises make guidance execution a risk.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on whether strategic M&A, including Inmarsat integration, can revive revenue growth while spending discipline supports cash generation. A guidance cut would be a negative signal; easier interest rates and stabilization among technology peers are possible sector tailwinds, but their effect on VSAT’s business remains uncertain.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis is intact but conditional: progress on growth and cash flow must offset continued execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: ““It is our continued belief that the ongoing strategic review coupled with disciplined execution and careful capital allocation can help unlock substantial value.””
Free cash flow of $180M | Free cash flow is guided at $180M for fiscal 2027, showing improving cash generation. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $100M in fiscal 2027 | Free cash flow: $41.622M FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $180M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202641,622,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income near break-even | Viasat is improving its operating income, nearly breaking even with -$0.6M in 2026-Q4. | Intact | Operating income falls below -$153.8M in any quarter next year | Operating income: $47.308M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= -$0.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202647,308,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth via strategic M&A | A primary condition in Viasat, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.171B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.124B next year | Revenue: $1.157B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.171B. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20261,156,543,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.36 → $-1.71 · observed estimates
$5.08B → $5.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.36 | $5,083,861,713 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.40 | $5,093,631,780 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.40 | $5,093,631,780 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.40 | $5,093,631,780 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.40 | $5,093,631,780 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.14 | $5,072,210,411 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.40 | $5,082,168,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.40 | $5,082,168,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.14 | $5,072,210,411 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.40 | $5,082,168,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.14 | $5,072,210,411 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.14 | $5,072,210,411 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.40 | $5,082,168,600 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.14 | $5,072,210,411 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.51 | $5,067,444,222 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.17 | $5,077,860,000 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.51 | $5,067,444,222 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.17 | $5,077,860,000 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.17 | $5,075,413,000 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.51 | $5,067,444,222 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.51 | $5,067,444,222 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.51 | $5,067,444,222 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.51 | $5,067,444,222 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.51 | $5,067,444,222 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.51 | $5,067,444,222 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.44 | $5,072,903,401 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.71 | $5,083,337,112 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.71 | $5,083,337,112 | 4 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.