Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.32+5.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VSAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 36.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VSAT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 28, 2026, Viasat, Inc. released its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 in a letter to shareholders that is available on the investor relations section of its website. A copy of the press release announcing the release of financial results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the letter to shareholders is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.2. The information contained herein and in the accompanying ex…
Why it matters: Updates on M&A could signal strategic shifts that impact Viasat's growth potential.
Supportive ifThey announce a new partnership or acquisition that helps Viasat grow.
Worry ifThere are no new updates or a statement about stopping M&A activity.
Why it matters: Stable or better revenue growth shows that Inmarsat is integrating well. It also shows good business health.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is over 1% compared to last year. This shows recovery from past stagnation.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is under 1% compared to last year. This shows ongoing stagnation.
Why it matters: Lower capex guidance would show strong capital discipline and focus on cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement says capital spending will be less than $950 million for FY2027.
Worry ifCapital spending guidance is raised above $1 billion for FY2027.
Why it matters: New M&A deals could boost revenue and align with management's growth goals.
Supportive ifA press release says an acquisition is done. It may add over $50M in yearly revenue.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements or failed negotiations in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The service launch is key for Viasat's growth. It helps their role in satellite communications.
Supportive ifManagement says the ViaSat-3 constellation has launched. It is now working well.
Worry ifThere are delays in the ViaSat-3 service launch.
Why it matters: Working with Carronade could lead to changes that affect Viasat's growth.
Supportive ifNew plans or partnerships come from the cooperation agreement.
Worry ifNo new plans or partnerships are announced, showing no progress.
Why it matters: Updates from the Board may show how they are increasing shareholder value after the Inmarsat deal.
Watch forThe Board shares specific plans or goals for increasing value.
Also watch forNo updates or plans are shared about increasing value in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth trends in the sector affect Viasat's performance and its place in the market.
Watch forSector revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth drops below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Being careful with spending helps keep finances healthy and supports growth.
Worry ifManagement says spending is under $100M for the fiscal year.
Less concerning ifSpending goes over $120M, which may mean overspending.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that Inmarsat is being integrated well. It also shows more market demand.
Supportive ifQ1 FY2027 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ1 FY2027 revenue growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company controls costs well. It also shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $50 million in Q2 FY2027.
Worry ifOperating income remains below $0 in Q2 FY2027.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reaches or exceeds $180 million in FY2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $100 million in FY2027.
Why it matters: New M&A announcements could enhance growth prospects and market position.
Supportive ifWatch for news about a new partnership or deal with Inmarsat integration.
Worry ifNo news or updates on Inmarsat integration in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$350 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $718 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,079 loss on $10,000 · 30.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.