Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$66.79-11.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VSAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 63.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
VSAT — restructuring
Dated 2026-11-04
| Other Events. On November 3, 2026, the Compensation and Human Resources Committee (“CHRC”) of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Viasat, Inc. (the “Company”) adopted the Viasat Value Creation Incentive Program (“V-CIP”). The V-CIP provides for the grant of long-term performance-based equity awards and its adoption coincides with our 40 th anniversary, the advancement of our operating plan and the strategic review on which it was developed. The Board intends to motivate participants to…
Why it matters: Two new directors joined the review committee. A clear action could show how Viasat plans to unlock value across its businesses.
Watch forViasat announces a clear review result, such as a sale, split, or capital plan.
Also watch forViasat reports no decision or action from the review in its next report.
Why it matters: The sector is still growing, but its pace is easing. Growth below its past median would add pressure to Viasat's flat revenue trend.
Worry ifXLK revenue growth falls below its past median.
Less concerning ifXLK revenue growth stays at or above its past median.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow would show that Viasat can fund its plans with less cash strain.
Supportive ifFY2027 free cash flow is at least $180 million.
Worry ifFY2027 free cash flow is below zero, or management drops its $180 million target.
Why it matters: Lower spending can ease cash needs. Spending above the range would weaken the case for tighter cost control.
Watch forFY2027 capital spending is $1.0 billion or less.
Also watch forFY2027 capital spending tops $1.0 billion.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$312 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $746 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,450 loss on $10,000 · 34.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue has changed little despite a focus on growth through deals. A clear rise would show that growth is picking up.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue tops $1.157 billion, above the recent range cited in the input.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue is $1.147 billion or less.