Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
VSE Corporation (VSEC)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$163.96+0.61%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.17 → 8.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VSEC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete acquisition of Precision Aviation Group | VSE finished buying Precision Aviation Group for $2 billion. | Recovered | Acquisition not completed by 2026-Q1 | Acquisition completed 2026-05-14 vs 2026-Q1 target May 2026 news confirms completion of Precision Aviation Group acquisition for $2.025B. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an acquisition-led growth story with integration and synergy delivery at its center. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent financial performance, but the business setup is high risk and management execution has been volatile.
VSEC is expensive versus peers, and the expectations gap is slightly negative, meaning current expectations appear somewhat ahead of the evidence. The valuation model has medium confidence, while the priced-in assessment says the fragility is low and the valuation is justified rather than reflecting a full stack of risks.
Near term, recent performance is strong and management has raised guidance, but earnings quality remains fragile and past surprises have been erratic. Over the next few years, results depend partly on completing the PAG integration, realizing more than $15 million in annualized synergies, and moving toward management’s stated margin goal; cash flow has been volatile, including a sharp acquisition-timing-related decline in 2026-Q1.
The key company-specific swing factor is whether VSEC sustains its raised guidance without a reversal, which could damage management credibility. The broader Industrials backdrop is also important: continued strength among sector bellwethers could support the setting, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
For the 1-to-3-year view, VSEC pairs strong recent results and a potentially meaningful integration opportunity with high risk, fragile earnings quality, and an expensive valuation. The thesis hinges on steady execution and a supportive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in VSE Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations improves toward positive in next 4 quarters. |
| Improving |
| Cash flow remains negative or worsens over next 4 quarters |
Cash from operations: $27.557M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations improves toward positive in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202627,557,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share | A supporting condition in VSE Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share maintained. | Intact | Dividend cut or suspension | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document VSE CORPORATION DECLARES QUARTERLY CASH DIVIDEND MIRAMAR, FL., November 3, 2026 – VSE Corporation (“VSE” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: VSEC, VSECU), a leading provider of aviation aftermarket distribution and repair services, announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share of VSE common stock.” “Document VSE CORPORATION DECLARES QUARTERLY CASH DIVIDEND MIRAMAR, FL., August 6, 2026 – VSE Corporation (“VSE” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: VSEC, VSECU), a leading provider of aviation aftermarket distribution and repair services, announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share of VSE common stock.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Gross margin near 18.1%-18.5% | A primary condition in VSE Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Gross margin >= 18.1%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 18.1% in FY26 | Gross margin: 17.02% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin >= 18.1%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202617.019083 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near $2.6 billion | A primary condition in VSE Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $2.56 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.56 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $449.137M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $2.56 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026449,137,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.78 → $8.25 · observed estimates
$2.16B → $2.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.68 | $2,156,230,040 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.78 | $2,156,226,720 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.72 | $2,198,752,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.01 | $2,200,842,626 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.01 | $2,200,846,138 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.01 | $2,200,846,138 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.01 | $2,200,846,138 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.01 | $2,200,846,138 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.01 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.28 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.28 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.28 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.17 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.17 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.17 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.17 | $2,199,540,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.17 | $2,200,817,633 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.17 | $2,200,817,633 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.15 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.15 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.15 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.15 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.15 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.15 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.15 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.16 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.16 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.13 | $2,201,595,798 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.14 | $2,202,132,710 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.14 | $2,202,132,710 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.14 | $2,202,132,710 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.15 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.25 | $2,202,038,318 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.