VSE Corporation (VSEC)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$163.96+0.61%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VSEC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 51.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 76.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
VSEC — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-04
Other Events On November 3, 2026, VSE Corporation issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share to be paid on January 29, 2027 to stockholders of record as of January 15, 2027. The Board of Directors approved the dividend on November 3, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: VSE raised its 2026 revenue guide after strong first-half results. Q3 results will show whether growth stays on that path.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue keeps the company on pace for 61%–64% full-year growth, and management keeps that guide.
Worry ifManagement cuts the 61%–64% full-year growth guide or reports results that put it out of reach.
Why it matters: VSE posted a 19.2% margin in Q2 and sees a path above 20%. A higher margin would show gains from its mix and integration work.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 20% or more. Management says integration led to gains.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 18.7%, the low end of the 2026 guide. Or management says integration gains have stalled.
Why it matters: VSE says it is aligning sales channels, moving work in-house, and seeking joint sales. Q3 updates can show if these plans lead to more sales or lower costs.
Supportive ifManagement reports new sales or cost savings from PAG and NorthStar. It gives a dollar amount or clear progress toward the more than $15 million annual synergy goal.
Worry ifManagement reports delays or rising integration costs. It reports no clear sales or cost gains from PAG and NorthStar.
Why it matters: VSE reported $18.7 million of free cash flow and $871.6 million of net debt in Q2. More cash would support debt paydown after its large acquisitions.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow exceeds $18.7 million and net debt falls from the June 30 level of $871.6 million.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow is at or below zero, or net debt rises above $871.6 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$255 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $517 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,161 loss on $10,000 · 41.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.