VSE Corporation (VSEC)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$203.91+0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VSEC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 44.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
VSEC — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-06
Other Events On August 6, 2026, VSE Corporation issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share to be paid on October 29, 2026 to stockholders of record as of October 15, 2026. The Board of Directors approved the dividend on August 4, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The revenue growth guidance of 61% to 64% shows strong demand in the market. It also shows that operations are doing well.
Supportive ifManagement confirms or raises the full year 2026 revenue growth guidance during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers the full year 2026 revenue growth guidance below 61%.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show how the company is managing its money.
Worry ifVSE maintains the quarterly dividend at $0.10 per share without changes.
Less concerning ifVSE cuts or stops the quarterly dividend payment.
Why it matters: The guidance will show how the Precision Aviation Group deal helps revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance raised to reflect growth of 57% to 61% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance stays the same or goes lower than before.
Why it matters: Realizing synergies from the PAG acquisition would enhance margins and growth. This is crucial for VSE's long-term strategy.
Supportive ifVSE expects to gain over $15 million in annual synergies from the PAG acquisition this year.
Worry ifSynergies are below expectations. This shows problems with integration and may hurt margins.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$242 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $510 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,031 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how VSE is doing financially after the PAG purchase.
Watch forVSE reports total revenue over $290 million for Q2 2026.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue is under $290 million. This may show problems with integration or the market.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is strong and values its shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the dividend or stops it completely.
Why it matters: Integrating PAG well is important for better margins and cost savings.
Supportive ifManagement says they expect to save over $15 million each year from the PAG deal.
Worry ifManagement says there are big delays or problems with the PAG acquisition.
Why it matters: Successful integration of PAG is key to achieving revenue and margin goals. It shows how well VSE can grow after the acquisition.
Supportive ifManagement has clear plans for business and integration. They see real chances to make money from the PAG acquisition.
Worry ifIntegration plans are delayed or fail to show clear revenue benefits within the next quarter.
Why it matters: This will show if the recent acquisitions are driving expected growth. A miss could signal integration issues or market challenges.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 57% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth meets or exceeds 57% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for VSE's future. A rebound could signal a stronger market position.
Watch forRevenue growth speeds up to over 10% year over year.
Also watch forRevenue growth slows down to below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow shows improved efficiency and financial health.
Supportive ifManagement reports stronger free cash flow than in the first half of 2026.
Worry ifWeak or declining free cash flow shows that there are operational problems.
Why it matters: Improvement in cash flow is essential for funding operations and growth. Continued negative cash flow could raise concerns.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities is better than -$62.3 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash from operating activities stays negative or gets worse in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how the deal affects profit and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin guidance raised to 18.1% to 18.5% for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin guidance stays at or below 16.8% to 17.3%.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for VSE to pay dividends and meet needs after the deal.
Supportive ifVSE reports positive cash flow from operations in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow remains negative or worsens in Q2 2026 results.
Why it matters: Improved free cash flow shows better cash management and supports future investments. It's crucial for VSE's growth plans.
Supportive ifFree cash flow in Q3 exceeds $20 million, indicating strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative or below $10 million, signaling ongoing cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow supports VSE's growth strategy and financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is growing compared to last quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations falls more or stays negative.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means better financial health after recent acquisitions. It shows VSE can make cash well.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive in Q2 2026. This shows better financial performance.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative in Q2 2026. This shows ongoing financial struggles.