Victoria's Secret (VSXY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.56+2.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VSXY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VSXY — officer change
Dated 2026-08-20
Director — Gerri Martin-Flickinger: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to fill a vacancy created by a board size increase, which is a routine governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining consumer sector. It could show that Victoria's Secret is gaining traction.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 0%.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains negative.
Why it matters: Changes in sector performance can impact Victoria's Secret. A strong sector may boost its sales outlook.
Supportive ifThe sector is doing better. It shows a positive trend over the last 60 days.
Worry ifThe sector keeps getting worse over the last 60 days.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show sales and profit. It helps us see how the company is doing.
Watch forThe earnings report shows sales and profit margins are better than expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows sales and profit margins are lower than expected.
Why it matters: Management raised the sales goal to $7.03-$7.13 billion. This shows they believe in growth.
Supportive ifActual net sales for Q3 2026 meet or exceed the new guidance range.
Worry ifNet sales fall below $7.03 billion for the full year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$210 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | Not available | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,634 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show better profits and efficiency. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating income for 2026 is in the target range of $550-$580 million.
Worry ifOperating income is less than $550 million for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Hitting this sales target shows strong growth and good execution.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales reported at or above $1.570 billion.
Worry ifQ3 net sales fall below $1.570 billion.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows strong profits and good cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating income for Q3 is $10 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted operating income for Q3 is less than $10 million.