Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.96-4.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.10 → 5.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VTOL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $295 million in 2026 | Profit margins and cash flow are expected to improve with adjusted EBITDA near $310 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $295 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 “We are pleased to announce strong financial results for the third quarter and to reaffirm the midpoint for Bristow’s full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance,” said Chris Bradshaw, President and CEO of Bristow Group.” ““We are pleased to affirm Bristow’s Adjusted EBITDA guidance range for 2026, despite macro uncertainties and continued supply chain challenges.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy-services business with a growing government-services platform, rather than a proven steady compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: recent performance improved, but consecutive earnings misses leave execution quality uncertain.
VTOL is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is considered justified rather than a clear mismatch with its risks. The expectations gap is negative, while the available evidence does not specify exactly what growth the market assumes.
Near term, management has reaffirmed its 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance, and Adjusted EBITDA rose from the first to the second quarter. However, the recent earnings misses and elevated risk of another miss make delivery uncertain. Over the multi-year view, Berry Aviation adds special-mission capabilities and long-term government contracts, supporting management’s shift toward more contracted revenue.
The near-term case hinges on whether VTOL avoids another guidance cut and improves its earnings execution. Over the next few quarters, continued strength from energy-sector peers SLB, BKR, and HAL would support the sector backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from those companies could remove that tailwind. Berry Aviation’s contribution to the government-services platform is another important execution test.
The 1-3 year thesis has support from affirmed guidance, a broader contracted-services platform, and a favorable sector backdrop, but repeated misses keep confidence in execution limited. The evidence supports watching delivery against guidance and the acquisition strategy. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share maintained | The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.125 per share in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.12 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.125 per share quarterly. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.125 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Through the first nine months of 2026, Bristow has paid cash dividends of more than $11 million and repurchased more than $36 million of common shares, including $25 million under the Company’s opportunistic share repurchase authorization.”” “On October 29, 2026, Bristow declared a dividend of $0.125 per share of common stock, payable on November 27, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 13, 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Adjusted free cash flow improves to at least $186.7 million in 2025 | Profit margins and cash flow are expected to improve with adjusted EBITDA near $310 million. | Broken | Adjusted free cash flow falls below $160 million in 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Government Services revenue share rises to ~35% post-acquisition | The Berry Aviation acquisition will expand government services from 26% to 35% of revenue. | Intact | Government Services revenue share remains below 30% after 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Bristow Special Missions, formerly known as Berry Aviation, has contributed strong financial results since the acquisition closed in July, and we expect this growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter and full-year 2027.” “Acquisition of Berry Aviation On July 13, 2026, the Company completed the acquisition of Berry Aviation Inc. (“Berry Aviation”) for $105.0 million, in an all-cash transaction, subject to customary purchase price adjustments.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Total revenue grows to at least $1.58 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Bristow Group Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.58 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.58 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $437.92M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.58 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026437,920,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 “We are pleased to announce strong financial results for the third quarter and to reaffirm the midpoint for Bristow’s full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance,” said Chris Bradshaw, President and CEO of Bristow Group.” ““We are pleased to affirm Bristow’s Adjusted EBITDA guidance range for 2026, despite macro uncertainties and continued supply chain challenges.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.26 → $5.10 · observed estimates
$1.72B → $1.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.26 | $1,723,200,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.26 | $1,723,200,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.26 | $1,723,200,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.26 | $1,723,200,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.26 | $1,723,200,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.28 | $1,731,165,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.28 | $1,731,165,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.26 | $1,723,200,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.28 | $1,731,165,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.28 | $1,731,165,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.28 | $1,731,165,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.26 | $1,723,200,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.26 | $1,723,200,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.28 | $1,731,165,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.31 | $1,770,095,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.22 | $1,776,293,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.22 | $1,788,378,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.10 | $1,784,728,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.10 | $1,785,428,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.