Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.32-0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VTOL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VTOL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 4, 2026, Bristow Group Inc. (“Bristow Group”) issued a press release setting forth its second quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and hereby incorporated by reference. The information furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise…
Why it matters: The new COO will lead Bristow's Government Services business. Stable leadership is key for strategy.
Watch forA new COO is appointed by the end of 2026, ensuring a smooth transition.
Also watch forFinding a new COO takes longer than planned. This creates uncertainty in leadership.
Why it matters: A smooth transition can keep growth in government services strong.
Watch forA new COO is hired and fits well with the leadership team.
Also watch forThe search for a new COO takes longer than expected, causing disruption.
Why it matters: This exit helps Bristow focus on government services that make more money. It changes revenue mix and future profits.
Supportive ifThe sale of the Norway Offshore Energy Services business is done. It helps the revenue mix.
Worry ifThe exit is delayed or does not occur, maintaining the current revenue mix.
Why it matters: Better cash from operations means better financial health. This helps fund growth and dividends.
Supportive ifCash from operations shows a positive trend in the upcoming earnings report.
Worry ifCash from operations declines or remains stagnant in the next earnings report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,870 loss on $10,000 · 18.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good cash flow shows better operations and smart money management. This is key for paying dividends and growing.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported positive for Q3, continuing the trend from Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is negative again. This shows possible money problems.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout shows financial stability. A cut could worry investors.
Worry ifThe company keeps or raises the dividend payout in the Q2 earnings announcement.
Less concerning ifThe company cuts the dividend payout during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: Revenue growth in this segment shows demand is coming back and operations are working.
Supportive ifOffshore Energy Services revenue grows by more than 5% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOffshore Energy Services revenue falls or grows less than 2% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Bristow is growing and running well. It means they are following their money plans.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is $295 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is under $295 million. This shows issues in operations.
Why it matters: This exit may change Bristow's revenue to more stable government services.
Watch forThe exit is done, and Bristow sees a big rise in government services revenue.
Also watch forThe exit is delayed or does not lead to a significant revenue shift.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows Bristow's promise to give back to shareholders.
Supportive ifBristow declares and pays a dividend of $0.125 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifBristow cuts or suspends the dividend payout for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows the company's growth plans are on track. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement affirms the 2026 revenue guidance during the next earnings call on August 4, 2026.
Worry ifManagement revises down the 2026 revenue guidance in the earnings call.
Why it matters: Closing the Berry Aviation deal will help Bristow's government services. It will also bring in more money. This fits their plan to focus on steady income.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes in Q3 2026 as planned, with no delays or issues reported.
Worry ifThe deal may be delayed or fail due to rules or money problems.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.125 per share again in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: The COO's retirement may affect Bristow's government contracts. New leaders might change the strategy.
Watch forBristow announces new government contracts won under the new COO.
Also watch forLoss of current government contracts or delays in new contracts are reported.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth increases, it could help Bristow's results and future.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Bristow is managing costs and revenue. This is key for future growth.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth higher than 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth lower than 0% year over year.