Ventas (VTR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-07-08
$94.07+2.02%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $94.07. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $94 VTR trades at 28× p/ffo — 1.7× the 16× p/ffo peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $60 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $88–$110. Note: our $60 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($88–$110). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $149 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$88.00 – $110.00 (median $98.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $98.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $10.56 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $17.80 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $9.55 | 16.2 | 0.59 | Mgmt | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $20.47 | 20.9 | 0.98 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $52.97 | 15.7 | 3.37 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $100.01 | 7.9 | 12.60 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $15.27 | 29.4 | 0.52 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $20.54 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $84.60 | 162.7 | 0.52 | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $24.91 | 15.7 | 1.58 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $13.70 | 20.9 | 0.66 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $79.24 | 15.7 | 5.04 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $156.00 | 7.9 | 19.66 | Analyst | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $31.01 | 29.4 | 1.06 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $171.87 | 162.7 | 1.06 | Analyst | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $48.08 | 15.7 | 3.06 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $10.48 | 20.9 | 0.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $103.65 | 15.7 | 6.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $206.31 | 7.9 | 25.99 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $41.02 | 29.4 | 1.40 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $227.30 | 162.7 | 1.40 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.