Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ventas (VTR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$89.20+2.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.94 → 0.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VTR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS guidance raised to $0.59 per share for 2026 | Earnings guidance was raised to $0.59 per share for 2026. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.56 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VTR is a real estate growth story, with senior housing investment and operating growth as its main drivers. The thesis is on watch: recent momentum has improved, but financial performance still trails its industry group and the valuation is expensive.
VTR trades at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence suggests expectations already lean toward a re-rating, or a change in how the market values the company. The model has low confidence, and the expensive valuation alone does not create a high fragility reading.
Near-term results show real operating progress: third-quarter SHOP Same-Store Cash NOI grew 16% year over year, occupancy improved, and total company NOI grew 18%. Management has delivered on senior housing expansion and SHOP growth priorities, while the leverage trend has improved; however, overall recent financial performance remains weak, and a guidance reversal after the recent raise would hurt confidence.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued senior housing investment and SHOP operating growth, alongside progress in maintaining financial flexibility. Near-term, lower interest rates could support the sector, while weaker results or guidance from VTR or sector peers could remove that support.
The multi-year view has tangible operating support, but the expensive valuation leaves limited room for execution setbacks, and performance still needs to strengthen relative to the industry. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Liquidity improved to $5.5 billion, supporting growth. |
| Intact |
| liquidity falls below $5 billion |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase senior housing investments to $3 billion in 2026 | Ventas grows senior housing investments to $3 billion in 2026. | Intact | total senior housing investments fall below $2.5 billion in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
SHOP Same-Store Cash NOI growth > 15% YoY | SHOP Same-Store Cash NOI rose over 15% year-over-year in Q1. | Under Pressure | SHOP Same-Store Cash NOI growth falls below 10% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.85 → $0.90 · observed estimates
$7.80B → $7.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.85 | $7,803,625,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.85 | $7,803,625,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.85 | $7,803,625,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.02 | $7,435,414,714 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.85 | $7,803,625,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.02 | $7,435,414,714 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.85 | $7,803,625,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.85 | $7,883,959,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.02 | $7,452,628,996 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.82 | $7,975,925,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.82 | $7,905,469,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.82 | $7,905,469,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.01 | $7,472,302,353 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.98 | $7,612,677,721 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.98 | $7,612,677,721 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.97 | $7,612,677,721 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.97 | $7,612,677,721 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.97 | $7,612,677,721 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.97 | $7,612,677,721 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.95 | $7,630,342,106 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.95 | $7,630,342,106 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.95 | $7,630,342,106 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.95 | $7,630,342,106 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.95 | $7,630,342,106 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.95 | $7,630,342,106 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.95 | $7,630,342,106 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.95 | $7,630,342,106 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.94 | $7,658,095,386 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,990 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.94 | $7,658,095,386 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.94 | $7,658,095,386 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,993 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,993 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.94 | $7,658,116,993 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.94 | $7,698,960,777 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.94 | $7,698,960,777 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.94 | $7,698,960,777 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.94 | $7,698,960,777 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.94 | $7,698,960,777 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.94 | $7,698,960,777 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.94 | $7,698,960,777 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.94 | $7,698,960,777 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.94 | $7,698,960,777 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.94 | $7,697,909,618 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.94 | $7,697,909,618 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.94 | $7,697,909,618 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.94 | $7,697,937,368 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.94 | $7,697,937,368 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.94 | $7,697,937,368 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.94 | $7,697,937,368 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.95 | $7,673,585,032 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.95 | $7,673,585,032 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.95 | $7,673,585,032 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.95 | $7,673,585,032 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.95 | $7,673,585,032 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.95 | $7,673,585,032 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.95 | $7,673,585,032 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.95 | $7,673,585,032 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.95 | $7,673,585,032 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.95 | $7,673,113,186 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.95 | $7,637,504,170 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.95 | $7,637,504,170 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.95 | $7,637,504,170 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.95 | $7,637,504,170 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.95 | $7,637,504,170 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.95 | $7,637,504,170 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.95 | $7,637,504,170 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.95 | $7,646,694,667 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.95 | $7,646,694,667 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.92 | $7,669,551,810 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.92 | $7,669,551,810 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.92 | $7,669,551,810 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.92 | $7,669,551,810 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.92 | $7,713,397,868 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.90 | $7,730,719,297 | 6 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.