Ventas (VTR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$90.27-2.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 56.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VTR — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-06-15
Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Ethics & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary — Carey S. Roberts: Ms. Roberts resigned to join Blackstone, Inc. as Senior Managing Director and General Counsel - Real Estate.
Why it matters: An earnings beat can show strong performance and market confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings report shows results better than what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ3 earnings fall short of analyst expectations. This may show operational issues.
Why it matters: A confirmed increase in investment volume shows strong growth momentum in senior housing. This can lead to higher returns and market confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says the investment volume is at or above $4.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifInvestment volume is below $4.5 billion. This shows weaker growth.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and affect investor trust.
Worry ifA new key executive will be named to replace the General Counsel.
Less concerning ifNo more leaders leaving. A steady team will help keep things on track.
Why it matters: Changes to FFO guidance show management's view on profits and performance. This can affect investors.
Watch forManagement raises FFO per share guidance for 2026 above $3.73.
Also watch forManagement lowers FFO per share guidance for 2026 below $3.63.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $211 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,350 loss on $10,000 · 13.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Liquidity is important for funding growth. A big drop could limit Ventas's investments.
Worry ifLiquidity is reported at $4.5 billion or more.
Less concerning ifLiquidity is less than $4.5 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in liquidity can affect Ventas's ability to grow and pay off debt.
Watch forLiquidity goes up to over $6 billion after taking on debt.
Also watch forLiquidity drops below $5 billion after taking on debt.
Why it matters: A lower result means less profit and may hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 Attributable Net Income per share below $0.56.
Less concerning ifQ2 Attributable Net Income per share at or above $0.56.
Why it matters: Growth in Same-Store Cash NOI shows strength and demand in senior housing. This is key for Ventas's success.
Supportive ifSame-Store Cash NOI growth is over 16% compared to last year.
Worry ifSame-Store Cash NOI growth is below 15%. This shows possible operational problems.
Why it matters: Investment volume is crucial for Ventas's growth strategy in senior housing. A drop signals potential issues.
Worry if2026 investment volume is reported at $4.5 billion or more.
Less concerning ifInvestment volume for 2026 is below $4.5 billion.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong market momentum and supports long-term growth. It reflects management's confidence in senior housing.
Supportive ifTotal 2026 senior housing investments reach or exceed $3 billion.
Worry ifTotal senior housing investments for 2026 are below $2.5 billion.
Why it matters: SHOP Same-Store Cash NOI keeps growing. This shows strong demand and success.
Supportive ifSHOP Same-Store Cash NOI growth exceeds 15% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifSHOP Same-Store Cash NOI growth falls below 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change strategy and actions. Watching this helps find possible risks.
Watch forNew leadership brings a strategic plan that aligns with growth goals.
Also watch forLeadership changes can slow down plans for strategy or investment.
Why it matters: Higher interest rates may affect Ventas's money and growth.
Watch forFull year guidance stays stable even with rising interest rates.
Also watch forFull year guidance is lowered due to rising interest rates.
Why it matters: A rise in guidance shows trust in financial results and plans.
Supportive ifFull year 2026 Attributable Net Income guidance raised above $0.63 per share.
Worry ifGuidance remains unchanged or lowered from the current range of $0.58-$0.63.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would prove Ventas's growth plan and market role.
Supportive ifTotal senior housing investments reach $4.5 billion by year-end 2026.
Worry ifTotal senior housing investments fall short of $4.5 billion.
Why it matters: Liquidity levels show how flexible a company is with money. This helps with growth.
Watch forLiquidity goes over $5.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Also watch forLiquidity falls below $5.3 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of how well Ventas is managing its senior housing portfolio. A drop could signal operational issues.
Worry ifQ3 Same-Store Cash NOI growth is below 15% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Same-Store Cash NOI growth remains at or above 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Completing this investment target shows Ventas is executing its growth strategy. It can boost future earnings.
Supportive ifVentas has finished $4.5 billion in senior housing investments by the end of the year.
Worry ifVentas fails to reach the $4.5 billion investment target by year-end.