Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
VirTra Inc (VTSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.700.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.07 → 0.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VTSI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
reduce losses and approach breakeven EPS | A primary condition in VirTra Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS improves to >= -$0.05 per share. | Improving | EPS remains below -$0.10 per share in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making small-cap growth story, not an established compounder. Its multi-year thesis is in a watch state: sales momentum has improved recently, but overall financial performance remains well below its industry cohort.
The valuation model describes VTSI as cheap versus peers, while its expectations gap is negative; this suggests expectations are not especially demanding, though model confidence is low. The evidence labels priced-in fragility as low and the setup as justified, but it does not provide enough detail to say exactly what operating assumptions the market already expects.
Near term, revenue rose from $3.5 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $5.8 million in the second, while bookings increased from $3.8 million to $5.5 million. Management is on track with its stated sales-momentum priority, but defense expansion and expense discipline are mixed, and the business remains loss-making. Recent earnings were mixed, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; the miss-risk estimate is 36%, with smaller-company size and erratic earnings surprises noted as risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether higher bookings convert into sustained revenue growth without expenses rising sharply. It also depends on progress in military and defense markets, including the Army Marketplace effort, and on the next guidance update. A cut in guidance would weaken the case, while steadier technology-sector conditions or lower interest rates could provide a more supportive backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, VTSI offers a low-confidence, high-risk thesis with early signs of better sales momentum but no clear resolution of its weak financial performance. The key evidence to watch is continued revenue conversion, defense-market progress, and management’s guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in VirTra Inc's published investment case. The stated target is revenue conversion timing stabilizes with fewer delays in 2026. |
| Improving |
| continued delays causing revenue recognition to lag materially in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
achieve sustained revenue growth near 40% in FY27 | A primary condition in VirTra Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=39.7% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below ~20% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our focus remains on supporting customers through the funding and procurement process, converting backlog into revenue, and positioning VirTra to capture the opportunities ahead.”” “While the timing of revenue conversion remains dependent on external funding and customer processes, the progression we are seeing today supports our expectation for improved sales momentum as we move through the second half of 2026.” Revenue was $5.763 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
improve sales momentum through 2026 | The company aims to improve sales momentum in 2026. | Improving | no improvement or decline in sales momentum in H2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our focus remains on supporting customers through the funding and procurement process, converting backlog into revenue, and positioning VirTra to capture the opportunities ahead.”” “While the timing of revenue conversion remains dependent on external funding and customer processes, the progression we are seeing today supports our expectation for improved sales momentum as we move through the second half of 2026.” Revenue was $5.763 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.08 → $0.07 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.04 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.04 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.04 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.04 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.04 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.04 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.08 | $24,889,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.07 | $24,912,500 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.