VirTra Inc (VTSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.69-1.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VTSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 65.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 146.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
VTSI — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, VirTra, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in the website is not a part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the…
Why it matters: Gross margin fell to 59% in Q2 from 69% a year earlier. A further drop would add pressure while VirTra is losing money.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 59%, or remains below 60% as revenue stays below $5.8 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin rises above 60% and revenue exceeds $5.8 million.
Why it matters: Army Marketplace access opens a path to compete, but does not show that the Army has placed an order. A named contract would show progress.
Supportive ifVirTra announces a U.S. Army contract tied to Weapons Skills Development, Joint Fires Training, or C-UAS.
Worry ifThe next two quarterly updates report no Army award and no new Army contracts.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose to $5.8 million from $3.5 million in Q1. Another rise would show that more orders are turning into sales.
Supportive ifIn the November 9, 2026 results, Q3 revenue is above $5.8 million and bookings are above $5.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is at or below $3.5 million, or bookings fall below $3.8 million.
Why it matters: Revenue fell 17% from a year ago in Q2, and customers delayed deliveries. A drop below Q2 would deepen the sales decline.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $5.8 million, or year-over-year revenue falls by more than 17%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is above $5.8 million and the year-over-year decline is less than 17%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $424 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,331 loss on $10,000 · 53.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.