VirTra Inc (VTSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.09+0.98%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VTSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -78.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 55.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 134.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VTSI — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, VirTra, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in the website is not a part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the…
Why it matters: A successful conversion means better efficiency. It also helps future revenue growth.
Supportive ifA significant portion of the backlog converts to revenue in Q3.
Worry ifBacklog conversion is steady or going down.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong demand. This could lead to more money coming in soon.
Supportive ifBacklog reported above $30 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or stays below $25 million.
Why it matters: Higher bookings show that sales are strong. This supports management's growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 bookings were over $5.5 million. This shows strong sales activity.
Worry ifQ3 bookings were under $5.5 million. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: A stable gross margin shows better cost control. This means more money made.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 60% in Q3, showing effective cost control.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 55%, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$163 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $442 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,312 loss on $10,000 · 53.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A better gross margin shows improved cost control and sales mix.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 65% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross margin stays below 61% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Addressing funding is key for growth. Progress can signal better financial health.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new funding round or partnership that raises over $1M.
Worry ifNo updates on funding processes or delays in securing funds.
Why it matters: News on federal grants may show if customers can get funding, which affects sales.
Watch forGood news on federal grants leads to more customer orders.
Also watch forBad news or delays in federal grants lead to fewer customer orders.
Why it matters: Management is working on funding issues to help the company grow.
Supportive ifA new funding deal or investment over $1 million will be announced.
Worry ifNo news on funding efforts or more delays in getting funds.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue shows recovery from the recent drop. This backs up management's view.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported above $3.85 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $3.15 million.
Why it matters: Higher revenue means the company is turning backlog into sales. This supports growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $5.8 million. This shows good sales execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was under $5.8 million. This suggests sales are facing challenges.
Why it matters: More activity in federal grants could lead to new contracts and revenue for VirTra.
Supportive ifNew federal grants for training programs are announced.
Worry ifNo new federal grants are announced that affect VirTra's market.
Why it matters: Winning military contracts would show VirTra is growing in the defense market.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new contract win from the U.S. Army in any of the three capability areas.
Worry ifNo new military contracts were announced. This shows progress in defense has stalled.
Why it matters: New military contracts would show VirTra is growing in defense markets. This helps future income.
Supportive ifA military contract worth over $1 million was announced in Q3.
Worry ifNo new military contracts were announced in Q3. This shows trouble in market growth.
Why it matters: Sales growth is important for turning chances into success for VirTra.
Supportive ifSales growth exceeds 15% in the next quarter compared to the previous year.
Worry ifSales growth remains flat or declines compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows ongoing sales problems and affects future growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue down year over year worse than -17%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue declines less than -17% YoY or shows growth.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it may indicate a slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median, showing resilience.
Why it matters: Successful conversion shows progress. It helps with funding and buying processes.
Watch forRevenue from federal grants recognized in Q2 2026.
Also watch forNo revenue from federal grants recognized in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health. It also shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss was below $(0.3) million. This shows progress in managing costs.
Worry ifNet loss is at or worse than $(0.3) million. This shows financial troubles.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if sales momentum is improving or not. This is key for growth.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth above 10% compared to Q1.
Also watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth below 0% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: More bookings would show strong sales and support management's growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 bookings reported above $5.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 bookings fall below $5.5 million.
Why it matters: A larger net loss would raise concerns about ongoing financial challenges.
Worry ifNet loss reported worse than $(0.3) million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet loss reported better than $(0.3) million in Q3.