Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
V2X, Inc. (VVX)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$74.01-4.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.94 → 6.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VVX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt and credit agreements without harming financial health | A supporting condition in V2X, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable credit metrics and manageable debt levels. | Intact | Material credit deterioration or debt distress reported | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VVX is an execution-led industrials business, with the thesis resting on continued growth and better profitability rather than a clear turnaround. The multi-year view is intact, though the signal has eased from favorable to mildly favorable and confidence is medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: VVX is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 46% premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, and pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility concentration. That suggests the market is not pricing in the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulence, but the evidence does not support a simple valuation conclusion.
Near term, recent results and management priorities point to continued revenue growth and improving adjusted earnings: both full-year 2026 guidance ranges were raised twice. Net debt and leverage improved in the second quarter, though the capital-allocation priority remains mixed against a year-end leverage goal. Risk remains elevated, earnings quality is fragile, and a recent deep miss makes a guidance reversal a key near-term concern.
The multi-year thesis hinges on VVX sustaining its raised revenue and earnings guidance while continuing to reduce leverage. A reversal in guidance would weaken management credibility. Industrials sector conditions also matter: continued strong results from bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
The 1-to-3-year view remains intact, supported by raised guidance and recent operating progress, but it is not a low-risk thesis. Its strength depends on execution holding up and sector conditions not worsening. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| EPS rises to nearly $6 per share. |
| Under Pressure |
| Full-year 2026 EPS falls below $4.65 per share |
Diluted EPS: $1.01 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.95 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20261.01 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 revenue at or above $4.875 billion | A primary condition in V2X, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.875 billion. | Intact | Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $4.425 billion | Revenue: $1.271B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.875 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20261,271,463,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.77 → $6.98 · observed estimates
$5.18B → $5.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.77 | $5,180,903,090 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.77 | $5,180,903,090 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.77 | $5,180,903,090 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.77 | $5,180,903,090 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.77 | $5,180,903,090 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.78 | $5,195,191,308 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.79 | $5,195,191,308 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.79 | $5,195,191,308 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.79 | $5,195,191,308 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.79 | $5,195,191,308 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.79 | $5,195,191,308 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.77 | $5,180,903,090 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.77 | $5,180,903,090 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.78 | $5,197,679,280 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.92 | $5,228,536,490 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.92 | $5,228,551,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.90 | $5,232,780,577 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.94 | $5,235,244,490 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.94 | $5,241,982,295 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.94 | $5,241,982,295 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.94 | $5,241,982,295 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.94 | $5,241,982,295 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.94 | $5,239,895,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.94 | $5,240,403,878 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.94 | $5,240,403,878 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.94 | $5,240,403,878 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.94 | $5,240,403,878 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.98 | $5,264,391,263 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.98 | $5,264,391,263 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.98 | $5,264,391,263 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.