V2X, Inc. (VVX)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.18-2.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VVX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VVX — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
Chief Growth Officer — L. Roger Mason, Jr.: The Chief Growth Officer resigned to take a government position, with the CEO temporarily assuming duties until a successor is appointed.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may mean lower demand or problems with execution.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth was below 9% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stayed above 9% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Falling EPS may show rising costs or lower profits.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 reported below $1.45.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 reported above $1.45.
Why it matters: Management wants a net leverage ratio of 2.0x by year-end. This shows better capital management.
Supportive ifNet leverage ratio improves to 2.0x or better by Q4.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio exceeds 2.4x by Q4.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance shows better profits. This could help investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to more than $6.30.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to less than $5.90.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,178 loss on $10,000 · 21.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growing backlog means future revenue and shows strong demand for services.
Supportive ifBacklog grows beyond $13.8 billion in Q2.
Worry ifBacklog declines or stagnates below $13.8 billion in Q2.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for V2X, Inc. in a maturing sector.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 7%.
Worry if3-year revenue growth stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Less cash used means better efficiency and cash flow management.
Supportive ifNet cash used by operations drops below $129.9 million in Q2.
Worry ifNet cash used by operations rises above $129.9 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Backlog shows future revenue potential. A drop could mean less demand.
Supportive ifTotal backlog rises above $12.7 billion.
Worry ifTotal backlog falls below $12.5 billion.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS growth shows the company is making money. Management raised guidance, which shows confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS exceeds $1.64 in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS falls below $1.53 in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows strong demand and growth potential. It reflects management's confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 revenue guidance to $4.875B-$5.025B.
Worry ifManagement keeps the 2026 revenue guidance the same or lowers it.
Why it matters: Lowering net debt helps financial health and can cut interest costs. It shows good capital management.
Supportive ifNet debt drops to about $850 million or less.
Worry ifNet debt increases or remains above $876 million.