Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$79.24+3.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.07 → 10.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WAL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend payout per share | A supporting condition in Western Alliance Bancorporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=$0.42 per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.42 per share in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.42 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.42 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20260.42 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WAL is a value-oriented regional banking business, with its valuation marked cheap versus peers. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, supported by balance-sheet growth and better recent credit indicators, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution has been volatile.
The evidence describes WAL as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, meaning expectations appear a little ahead of the model’s view. Valuation rose recently, and the priced-in assessment says fragility is low because weak execution quality is not combined with an expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Near term, commercial loans and deposits have grown, deposits stayed stable after optimization, and credit indicators improved in the latest quarter. Deposit-cost actions show progress, though the optimization record is mixed and allowance coverage needs monitoring. Recent results include an earnings beat after a July miss, with low stated miss risk but a warning that WAL and peers have missed in recent quarters.
The near-term risk is a guidance cut on the next call, which the evidence flags as a meaningful negative. Lower interest rates could also weigh on WAL and the financial sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. Over the multi-year view, the key test is whether loan and deposit growth continues alongside disciplined credit quality and effective deposit-cost management.
WAL’s 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, with growth and recent credit improvement balanced against fragile earnings quality and execution risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income improvement |
| A primary condition in Western Alliance Bancorporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=$250 million. |
| Improving |
| Net income stays below $182 million in FY26 |
Net income: $270.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$250 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 2026270,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improvement | A primary condition in Western Alliance Bancorporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=$300 million. | Intact | Operating income stays below $231 million in FY26 | Operating income: $339.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$300 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 2026339,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth rate | A primary condition in Western Alliance Bancorporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 109.8% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 2026109.795918 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.19 → $10.62 · observed estimates
$4.28B → $4.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.19 | $4,280,992,817 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.31 | $4,272,234,590 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.16 | $4,268,518,233 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.31 | $4,272,234,590 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.31 | $4,272,234,590 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.31 | $4,275,759,810 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.31 | $4,275,759,810 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.31 | $4,275,759,810 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.31 | $4,275,759,810 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.31 | $4,275,759,810 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.29 | $4,274,083,810 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.29 | $4,274,083,810 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.14 | $4,256,144,731 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.11 | $4,253,840,231 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.05 | $4,239,763,603 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.05 | $4,239,763,603 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.06 | $4,237,449,353 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.06 | $4,237,449,353 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.06 | $4,237,449,353 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.06 | $4,237,449,353 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.06 | $4,237,449,353 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.06 | $4,237,449,353 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.07 | $4,220,899,353 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.05 | $4,220,899,353 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.06 | $4,227,261,853 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.06 | $4,227,261,853 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.07 | $4,227,261,853 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.03 | $4,234,536,535 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.03 | $4,234,536,535 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.01 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.01 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.01 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.95 | $4,234,474,035 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.88 | $4,213,587,998 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.72 | $4,164,660,352 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.68 | $4,162,839,544 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.66 | $4,159,050,518 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.66 | $4,159,050,518 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.66 | $4,159,050,518 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.66 | $4,159,050,518 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.66 | $4,159,050,518 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.66 | $4,159,050,518 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.66 | $4,159,050,518 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.66 | $4,159,050,518 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.62 | $4,154,063,018 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.62 | $4,154,063,018 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.62 | $4,154,063,018 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.62 | $4,154,063,018 | 12 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.