Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$80.95-0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
WAL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-21
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION . On July 21, 2026, Western Alliance Bancorporation (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026 and posted on its website its second quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call Presentation, which contains certain additional historical and forward-looking information relating to the Company. Copies of the press release and presentation slides are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectiv…
Why it matters: A drop in net income would signal a reversal in the recent growth trend. Investors are focused on net income as a key measure of financial health.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $250 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income exceeds $250 million.
Why it matters: A higher provision shows more credit risk. This could lead to problems in the loan portfolio and hurt profits.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses exceeds $213 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses is less than or equal to $213 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If net charge-offs go up, asset quality may get worse. This can raise worries about credit risk and profit.
Worry ifQ3 net charge-offs reported above 0.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net charge-offs remain below 0.5%.
Why it matters: Net income above this level shows recovery from recent earnings issues. It also supports growth goals.
Supportive ifQ2 net income is over $200 million. This shows a rebound in profitability.
Worry ifQ2 net income is below $182 million. This confirms ongoing earnings issues.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $379 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,027 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income shows ongoing problems with making money. Investors may worry about the company's ability to keep earning.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls more than 35% year over year from $293.2 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income declines less than 35% year over year or increases.
Why it matters: The outcome will affect financial stability. It could also impact future earnings. Investors worry about possible losses from this loan.
Worry ifA court ruling helps Western Alliance recover a large part of the $126.4 million loan.
Less concerning ifA court ruling against Western Alliance, confirming the loss of the $126.4 million loan.
Why it matters: If the efficiency ratio rises, costs may increase compared to revenue. This can affect profit and investor trust.
Worry ifThe Q3 efficiency ratio is over 60%.
Less concerning ifQ3 efficiency ratio stays below 60%.
Why it matters: A change in the dividend may show shifts in how money is used. It can also indicate financial health.
Watch forThe Board declares a dividend payout different from $0.42.
Also watch forThe Board maintains the dividend payout at $0.42.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show how much management trusts future earnings.
Watch forDividend payout goes up from $0.42. This shows confidence in earnings.
Also watch forDividend payout goes down. This may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: Better asset quality shows improved risk management. It may lead to lower credit losses.
Supportive ifClassified assets ratio drops below 1.08% in Q3.
Worry ifClassified assets ratio rises above 1.08% in Q3.
Why it matters: A lower net interest margin may mean profits are under pressure. This can come from rising costs or competition.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.50%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains above 3.50%.
Why it matters: A drop below this threshold would indicate a significant slowdown in the growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: It is important to keep or improve net income. This builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifNet income increases to at least $200 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet income continues to decline below $180 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If deposits keep falling, it may show customers are losing confidence.
Worry ifTotal deposits reported down more than 1% from the previous quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits are stable or rising.
Why it matters: The result will affect financial performance. It may change how money is spent in the future.
Worry ifA good ruling could recover a large part of the $126.4 million from the LAM loan.
Less concerning ifA bad ruling would confirm the loss of the $126.4 million with no recovery.
Why it matters: A higher efficiency ratio means worse cost management. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifThe efficiency ratio is over 60%. This means operational costs are high compared to revenue.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio is below 60%. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may mean that management expects to earn more money in the future.
Watch forThe Board maintains or increases the dividend payout of $0.42 per share.
Also watch forThe Board cuts the dividend payout below $0.42 per share.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may raise worries about capital strength.
Worry ifCET1 ratio reported below 11%.
Less concerning ifCET1 ratio reported at or above 11%.
Why it matters: Higher credit losses may show worse asset quality. This can affect future earnings.
Worry ifEach year, net loan charge-offs are more than 0.50% of average loans.
Less concerning ifEach year, net loan charge-offs are less than 0.50% of average loans.
Why it matters: Changes may show that management cares about financial stability. This could mean better earnings soon.
Supportive ifThere is news of a higher quarterly dividend above $0.42 per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut or freeze at $0.42 per share.