Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Waystar Holding Corp (WAY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.88-2.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.88 → 1.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WAY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations rises to about $85 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations rose to $84.9M, supporting buybacks. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $70 million in next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $59.411M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $85 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 29, 202659,411,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WAY is a growth-oriented healthcare business with recent strong financial performance and robust earnings quality. Its multi-year view is intact, but elevated risk and a mixed history of quarterly results mean execution remains important.
The evidence describes WAY as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 0.74 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap, so the valuation signals are mixed. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility and no fragility gates triggered.
Near term, management’s focus on revenue growth, profitability, and operating cash flow is on track: recent quarterly revenue grew year over year, and profitability improved while adjusted EBITDA margin stayed steady. Recent results include two earnings beats after a February miss, but the record of past misses and the possibility of a guidance reversal remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management sustaining growth and profitability without reversing its recently raised guidance. A weakening jobs trend could increase recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, WAY’s growth and profitability progress support an intact thesis, but economic sensitivity and execution risk remain meaningful. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Waystar Holding Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.64 per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.50 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.16 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.64 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20260.16 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to about $80.5 million in Q1 2026 | A supporting condition in Waystar Holding Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $80 million. | Intact | Operating income falls below $70 million in next 4 quarters | Operating income: $61.266M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $80 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 202661,266,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.28 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in Waystar Holding Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.279 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $325.624M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.279 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026325,624,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.85 → $1.88 · observed estimates
$1.42B → $1.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.85 | $1,420,810,661 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.85 | $1,420,666,570 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.85 | $1,420,723,664 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.85 | $1,420,666,570 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.85 | $1,420,666,570 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.85 | $1,420,666,570 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.85 | $1,420,681,060 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.87 | $1,422,737,580 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.87 | $1,423,202,320 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.88 | $1,423,652,730 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.88 | $1,423,652,730 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.88 | $1,423,652,730 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.88 | $1,423,652,730 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.87 | $1,422,757,969 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.88 | $1,423,477,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.88 | $1,423,477,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.88 | $1,423,477,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.88 | $1,423,477,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.88 | $1,423,477,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.88 | $1,423,477,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.88 | $1,423,477,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.88 | $1,423,477,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.88 | $1,423,477,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.88 | $1,423,476,483 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.88 | $1,423,475,087 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.88 | $1,423,596,209 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.88 | $1,423,596,209 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.88 | $1,423,596,209 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.88 | $1,423,596,209 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.88 | $1,423,596,209 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.88 | $1,423,596,209 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.88 | $1,423,596,209 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.88 | $1,423,596,209 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.88 | $1,423,578,027 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.88 | $1,423,579,663 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.88 | $1,423,579,663 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.88 | $1,423,579,663 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.88 | $1,423,579,663 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.88 | $1,423,579,663 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.88 | $1,423,579,663 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.88 | $1,423,579,663 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.88 | $1,423,579,663 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.88 | $1,423,611,481 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.88 | $1,423,611,481 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.88 | $1,423,625,118 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.88 | $1,423,670,572 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.88 | $1,423,670,572 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.88 | $1,423,670,572 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.88 | $1,423,670,572 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.88 | $1,423,670,572 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.88 | $1,423,670,572 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.89 | $1,418,259,705 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.88 | $1,417,451,766 | 12 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.