Waystar Holding Corp (WAY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.07-3.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WAY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-17
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Waystar Holding Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for the fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the corresponding Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18…
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow can raise worries about how well the company operates.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $50 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains at or above $50 million.
Why it matters: If it drops below 40%, there may be operational problems. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin is now below 40%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 40%.
Why it matters: Higher operating income growth means better cost control. This shows the company is healthy.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is over 15% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 15% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Strong subscription growth shows demand and good platform expansion. It shows management wants to grow revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 subscription revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 subscription revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $519 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,767 loss on $10,000 · 57.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More cash flow from operations helps Waystar invest in growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $90 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $80 million in Q2.
Why it matters: More cash flow helps support growth plans. It shows the company is strong.
Supportive ifCash from operations growth reported above 20% year over year.
Worry ifCash from operations growth reported below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving cash from operations is critical for Waystar's financial health. It supports growth and investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations shows a positive change compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations is the same or lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: If sector growth drops, it may affect Waystar's performance. This signals broader issues.
Worry ifHealth Care sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifHealth Care sector revenue growth stays at or above its median.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA margin may show higher costs or problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 43% in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains at or above 43% in Q3.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand or market challenges.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 18% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 18% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in the retention rate could signal client losses or reduced upselling success.
Worry ifNet revenue retention rate falls below 108%.
Less concerning ifNet revenue retention rate stays at or above 108%.
Why it matters: Good integration can improve AI skills and help future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached key goals in the Iodine integration.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or issues in the integration.