Waystar Holding Corp (WAY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$28.88-2.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WAY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 2, 2026, Waystar Holding Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the corresponding Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securiti…
Why it matters: Net revenue retention fell from 111% in Q1 to 108% in Q2. A further drop would point to weaker growth from current clients.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue retention is below 108%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net revenue retention is above 108%.
Why it matters: Subscription revenue grew 34% in Q2, while volume-based revenue grew 3%. A sharp slowdown in subscriptions would weaken a key growth stream.
Worry ifQ3 subscription revenue grows less than 34% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 subscription revenue grows at least 34% year over year.
Why it matters: Waystar raised its 2026 revenue range after Q2 growth of 18%. Revenue above $319.7M would support continued growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue tops $319.7M, and Waystar keeps or raises its 2026 revenue range of $1.276B to $1.294B.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is at or below $319.7M, or Waystar cuts its 2026 revenue range below $1.276B.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $479 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,327 loss on $10,000 · 53.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.