Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Workday, Inc. (WDAY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$201.84+1.97%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.25 → 13.25 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 24 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WDAY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand AI and cloud capabilities via partnerships | Partnerships with Amazon and Microsoft boost AI and cloud offerings. | Improving | Partnerships fail to expand or contribute to growth | Qualitative: 2 major AI partnerships/acquisitions (C1.ai, Accenture) vs target to sustain/grow Workday acquired C1.ai and launched an Accenture program to expand AI capabilities, strongly reinforcing the competitive moat driver. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-quality software growth business with a durable-compounder profile, rather than a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent business momentum has improved, though management consistency and overall risk remain concerns.
Valuation evidence is mixed: WDAY is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 0.65 premium versus peers, with an expectations gap of -0.18. The model labels what is priced in as justified and fragility as low, so the evidence does not point to extreme expectations, but it gives limited detail on what the market specifically assumes.
Over the multi-year view, subscription revenue growth and AI adoption support continued expansion, while recent results and operating margins show strong execution. Near term, the miss risk is assessed as low, but erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses are cautions; a reversal of recently raised guidance would also damage management credibility.
The key business test is whether subscription growth and margin gains continue without a guidance reversal. Near-term sentiment also depends in part on whether technology peers stabilize and whether the Fed begins cutting rates, which could support rate-sensitive technology shares.
For the next 1 to 3 years, WDAY’s long-term thesis rests on sustained subscription growth, AI adoption, and reliable execution, with management credibility and sector conditions as the main swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Workday, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=30.5%. |
| Intact |
| Operating margin falls below 30.5% in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We now expect fiscal 2027 subscription revenue of $9.940 billion to $9.950 billion, growth of 13%, while increasing our fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 31.0%.” ““We are reiterating our fiscal 2027 subscription revenue outlook of $9.925 billion to $9.950 billion, while increasing our fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 30.5%.” Operating income was $313.000 million in 2027-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Subscription revenue grows at least 12% YoY | Workday grows subscription revenue about 14% yearly. | Intact | Subscription revenue growth falls below 12% YoY in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We now expect fiscal 2027 subscription revenue of $9.940 billion to $9.950 billion, growth of 13%, while increasing our fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 31.0%.” ““We are reiterating our fiscal 2027 subscription revenue outlook of $9.925 billion to $9.950 billion, while increasing our fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 30.5%.” Revenue was $2.649 billion in 2027-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.64 → $13.25 · observed estimates
$11.85B → $11.77B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.64 | $11,848,138,193 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.64 | $11,848,138,193 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.64 | $11,849,935,772 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.64 | $11,849,935,772 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.64 | $11,840,360,750 | 41 / 40 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.64 | $11,840,360,750 | 41 / 40 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.63 | $11,850,434,476 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.63 | $11,849,711,944 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.63 | $11,849,711,944 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.63 | $11,849,722,021 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.63 | $11,849,722,021 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.63 | $11,849,722,021 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.63 | $11,849,745,242 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.63 | $11,849,745,242 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.63 | $11,849,745,242 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.63 | $11,849,745,242 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.23 | $11,791,206,842 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.23 | $11,791,206,842 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.23 | $11,791,206,842 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.23 | $11,782,805,105 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.23 | $11,782,831,421 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.23 | $11,782,824,145 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.23 | $11,782,824,145 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.23 | $11,782,824,145 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,744 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.25 | $11,782,251,270 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.25 | $11,782,251,270 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.25 | $11,782,238,112 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.25 | $11,782,238,112 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.25 | $11,782,238,112 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.25 | $11,782,238,112 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.25 | $11,782,238,112 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.25 | $11,782,238,112 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,507 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,507 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,507 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,507 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,507 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,507 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,507 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.25 | $11,782,240,507 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.25 | $11,782,995,680 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.24 | $11,782,272,086 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.24 | $11,782,272,086 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.24 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.24 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.24 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.24 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.24 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.25 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.25 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.25 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.25 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.25 | $11,782,272,086 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.25 | $11,774,084,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.25 | $11,774,084,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.25 | $11,774,084,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.25 | $11,774,084,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.25 | $11,774,084,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.25 | $11,774,084,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.25 | $11,774,084,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.25 | $11,774,084,002 | 24 / 30 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 20 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.