Workday, Inc. (WDAY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$195.79-5.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WDAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WDAY — CEO transition
Dated 2026-02-09
CEO — Aneel Bhusri: Aneel Bhusri was promoted to CEO, and Carl Eschenbach resigned as CEO.
Why it matters: This margin helps us see how well the company runs. A drop may mean cost issues.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating margin was below 30% for Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating margin was at or above 30%. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: This growth shows how well Workday's AI strategy is working. It reflects customer adoption and product relevance.
Supportive ifAI contributes more than 25% of new annual contract value (ACV) in Q3.
Worry ifAI's share of new ACV is below 25%. This suggests weaker adoption.
Why it matters: More customers show strong market demand. This can increase revenue forecasts.
Supportive ifTotal customer count is above 11,500.
Worry ifTotal customer count reported at or below 11,500.
Why it matters: New AI features can drive customer adoption and revenue. Delays may signal execution issues.
Supportive ifNew AI features or products were announced. They improve HR and finance capabilities.
Worry ifNo new AI features announced in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$290 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $536 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,458 loss on $10,000 · 54.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Gaining new customers shows Workday's growth potential and market demand. It reflects the effectiveness of sales efforts.
Supportive ifAt least five new customers announced in Q2.
Worry ifFewer than five new customers were acquired in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect strategy and focus. This can influence investor trust.
Watch forPositive comments from new CEO Aneel Bhusri about future plans and growth.
Also watch forBad comments or doubts about the new leadership's plan.
Why it matters: Slower customer growth may mean the market is full or competition is tough.
Worry ifCustomer growth rate was under 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifCustomer growth rate is over 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This number shows if Workday is on track to grow its subscription revenue. Strong growth is key for future success.
Supportive ifFiscal Q1 subscription revenues were at least $2.335 billion.
Worry ifSubscription revenues were less than $2.335 billion.
Why it matters: Better AI can bring in more customers. This can increase revenue.
Supportive ifManagement shares new AI features or shows strong customer growth.
Worry ifNo new AI features or slow customer growth are reported.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows how well Workday can gain more customers and make money.
Worry ifQ3 subscription revenue growth is below 12%.
Less concerning ifQ3 subscription revenue growth meets or exceeds 12%.
Why it matters: Slower growth in AI use may show problems in Workday's innovation plans.
Worry ifCustomer use of AI agents grows less than 25% each quarter.
Less concerning ifCustomer use of AI agents grows 25% or more each quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program can show how much management trusts the company.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of more share repurchases in the $4 billion program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.