Welltower (WELL)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$237.59+2.11%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $237.59. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $238 WELL trades at 47× p/ffo — 2.9× the 16× p/ffo peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $156 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $226–$254. Note: our $156 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($226–$254). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $265 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$226.00 – $254.00 (median $246.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $246.50 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $138.96 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $130.22 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $47.44 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $52.05 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $53.56 | 16.2 | 3.31 | Mgmt | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $75.27 | 21.5 | 3.50 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $82.50 | 16.2 | 5.10 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $128.59 | 7.9 | 16.20 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $57.87 | 29.6 | 1.96 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $48.67 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $214.23 | 109.6 | 1.96 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $32.67 | 16.2 | 2.02 | Triangulated | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $160.23 | 16.2 | 9.90 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $114.48 | 21.5 | 5.32 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $125.47 | 16.2 | 7.75 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $218.28 | 7.9 | 27.50 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $124.08 | 29.6 | 4.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $459.34 | 109.6 | 4.19 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $332.70 | 16.2 | 20.56 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $151.40 | 21.5 | 7.04 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $165.93 | 16.2 | 10.26 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $288.67 | 7.9 | 36.37 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $164.09 | 29.6 | 5.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $607.48 | 109.6 | 5.54 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.