Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Welltower (WELL)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$247.99+2.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.25 → 3.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WELL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow per share | The company has strong cash flow and a stable management team. | Intact | FCF per share falls below $4.5 in FY2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WELL is a real estate growth and operations thesis centered on seniors housing, rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis has improving momentum, but remains in a watch state because recent performance is still below its industry cohort.
WELL is valued at a 3.19 premium versus peers, and the valuation signal is stretched. The model sees an expectations gap of 0.18, with low confidence; some of the premium appears tied to future growth opportunities, but the evidence does not show that the market assumes flawless execution.
Near term, the latest earnings beat and stronger momentum are constructive, while the prior guidance reduction and performance below the industry cohort remain watch points. Over the multi-year view, seniors housing operating NOI and occupancy have shown delivery, and investment activity has grown; leverage is nearly unchanged, while liquidity has declined.
A favorable shift would be a guidance increase after the prior reduction, alongside continued seniors housing occupancy and NOI growth. The thesis also depends on disciplined capital deployment and balance-sheet capacity, while weaker results from real estate peers or the absence of rate cuts could remove helpful sector support.
Over the next one to three years, WELL has credible operating and growth evidence, but its premium valuation and mixed execution signals leave the long-term thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It raised net income guidance to $3.38 per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS guidance falls below $3.0 per share in FY2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 Outlook for 2026 Net income attributable to common stockholders guidance has been revised to a range of $3.31 to $3.37 per diluted share from the previous range of $3.11 to $3.19.” “Outlook for 2026 Net income attributable to common stockholders guidance has been revised to a range of $3.11 to $3.19 per diluted share from the previous range of $3.24 to $3.38.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Outpatient Medical occupancy rate | Occupancy in outpatient medical properties improved to 96.9%. | Intact | Occupancy falls below 95% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Seniors Housing Operating NOI growth | Welltower grows seniors housing income 22% yearly. | Intact | Seniors Housing NOI growth falls below 15% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In preparing our guidance, we have updated or confirmed the following assumptions: • Same Store NOI: We expect average blended SSNOI growth of 15.0% to 16.25%, which is comprised of the following components: ◦ Seniors Housing Operating approximately 20.25% to 21.75% ◦ Seniors Housing Triple-net approximately 3.5% to 4.5% ◦ Outpatient Medical approximately 2.0% to 3.0% ◦ Skilled Nursing approximately 2.0% to 3.0% • Investments: Our earnings guidance includes only those acquisitions announced or closed to date.” Revenue was $3.716 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.36 → $3.27 · observed estimates
$16.22B → $16.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.36 | $16,217,611,740 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.36 | $16,217,611,740 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.36 | $16,217,611,740 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.36 | $16,217,611,740 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.25 | $15,855,328,422 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.25 | $15,872,899,851 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.25 | $15,936,213,394 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.36 | $16,507,685,070 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.25 | $15,936,213,394 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.27 | $16,507,685,070 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.27 | $16,507,685,070 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.27 | $16,660,984,489 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.20 | $15,915,913,394 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.17 | $16,024,505,430 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.17 | $16,024,505,430 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.16 | $16,024,505,430 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.16 | $16,024,505,430 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.16 | $16,024,505,430 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.17 | $16,129,656,680 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.17 | $16,129,656,680 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.17 | $16,129,656,680 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.17 | $16,129,656,680 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.17 | $16,129,656,680 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.17 | $16,129,656,680 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.17 | $16,129,656,680 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.17 | $16,129,656,680 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.17 | $16,129,656,680 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.25 | $16,174,399,099 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.25 | $16,174,426,987 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.25 | $16,174,399,099 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.25 | $16,174,399,099 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.25 | $16,174,399,099 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.25 | $16,181,480,179 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.25 | $16,181,480,179 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.25 | $16,181,480,179 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.25 | $16,181,480,179 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.25 | $16,181,480,179 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.25 | $16,181,480,179 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.25 | $16,181,480,179 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.25 | $16,181,480,179 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.25 | $16,181,480,179 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.25 | $16,205,157,334 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.25 | $16,203,179,149 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.25 | $16,203,179,149 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.25 | $16,203,179,149 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.25 | $16,203,157,334 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.25 | $16,203,157,334 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.25 | $16,278,757,726 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.25 | $16,275,845,418 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.24 | $16,200,453,049 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.24 | $16,200,453,049 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.24 | $16,200,453,049 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.24 | $16,200,453,049 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.24 | $16,200,453,049 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.24 | $16,200,453,049 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.24 | $16,200,453,049 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.24 | $16,244,974,860 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.24 | $16,242,974,860 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.26 | $16,385,312,844 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.26 | $16,383,033,045 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.26 | $16,383,033,045 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.26 | $16,383,033,045 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.26 | $16,529,407,946 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.27 | $16,559,343,660 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.