Welltower (WELL)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$236.17-2.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Net income guidance per diluted share: EPS guidance $3.15 vs $3.24 target.
Welltower grows seniors housing income 22% yearly. It raised net income guidance to $3.38 per share. Occupancy in outpatient medical properties improved to 96.9%. The company has strong cash flow and a stable management team.
Welltower trades at a very high price-to-earnings ratio of 121.5. Its dividend yield and free cash flow yield are very low at 1%. If seniors housing or outpatient occupancy weakens, growth could stall.
The market prices Welltower about 52% above our fair value of $156. Analysts expect 23% revenue growth, which aligns with management's strong growth targets. Our fair value is 37% below the Street median, reflecting valuation risk.
Breaks if: FCF per share falls below $4.5 in FY2025
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $3.0 per share in FY2026
Breaks if: Occupancy falls below 95% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
WELL represents a long-term investment in the real estate sector, specifically in seniors housing. The current thesis state is weakened, reflecting challenges in execution and a high valuation compared to peers.
The market seems to have priced in a high valuation for WELL, suggesting that expectations are elevated. There is a noted fragility in the valuation due to weak execution quality and recent performance declines.
Management has mixed results in increasing net income and normalized funds from operations (FFO) guidance. While they have successfully increased the quarterly dividend, the overall financial performance has slipped, indicating potential challenges ahead.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including a potential reversal in guidance, changes in Federal Reserve interest rates, and the performance of sector peers. Positive shifts in these areas could improve sentiment and performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates a weaker reason to own the stock. Additionally, Welltower's dividend yield is lower than the industry average. The stock trades above an estimated value, suggesting it may be overvalued.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Seniors Housing NOI growth falls below 15% YoY next year
Drive growth in same store net operating income (NOI) in the Seniors Housing Operating portfolio through occupancy and revenue per occupied room improvements.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Same store NOI growth in the Seniors Housing Operating portfolio was 20.4% in 2025-Q4, 22.1% in 2026-Q1, and 20.5% in 2026-Q2, driven by occupancy and revenue per occupied room increases. The trajectory is delivering consistent strong growth aligned with management's stated focus.
“Reported total portfolio year-over-year same store NOI growth of 15.5%, driven by SSNOI growth in our Seniors Housing Operating portfolio of 20.5%.”
“Reported total portfolio year-over-year same store NOI growth of 16.4%, driven by SSNOI growth in our Seniors Housing Operating portfolio of 22.1%.”
“Reported total portfolio year-over-year same store NOI growth of 15.0%, driven by SSNOI growth in our Seniors Housing Operating portfolio of 20.4%.”
In the 1-3 year view, WELL faces challenges that could impact its long-term thesis. The situation requires careful monitoring of management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.