Welltower (WELL)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$236.17-2.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WELL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 46.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
WELL — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-28
Other Events. At-the-Market Offering On July 28, 2026, Welltower Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) with Welltower OP LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Welltower OP”), and (i) Barclays Capital Inc., BBVA Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BNY Mellon Capital Markets, LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., BTIG, LLC, Capital One Securities, Inc., CIBC World Market…
Why it matters: A downward change could show problems with Welltower's ability to earn money. This may hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNormalized FFO guidance is confirmed at $6.36 per share or higher.
Less concerning ifNormalized FFO guidance is revised down to below $6.36 per share.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows how well Welltower is doing in the seniors housing market.
Worry ifQ3 same store NOI growth reported below 13.75%.
Less concerning ifQ3 same store NOI growth reported above 16%.
Why it matters: A drop in occupancy growth would hurt revenue and overall results in the SHO segment.
Worry ifOccupancy growth in the Seniors Housing Operating segment was less than 330 bps.
Less concerning ifOccupancy growth in the Seniors Housing Operating segment was more than 400 bps.
Why it matters: The Board's approval of the dividend increase shows confidence in cash flow growth. A consistent dividend reflects financial health.
Supportive ifThe Board approves a dividend of $0.85 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe Board does not approve the dividend increase for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This shows good capital management. It may improve cash for future investments.
Supportive ifTotal pro rata dispositions are more than $1.1 billion.
Worry ifTotal pro rata dispositions are less than $1 billion.
Why it matters: A halt or cut in dividend growth would signal weaker cash flow and investor confidence.
Worry ifDividend growth reported at 0% or negative for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifDividend growth reported at 15% or more for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows confidence in cash flow and financial health.
Watch forThe quarterly dividend remains at $0.85 per share.
Also watch forThe quarterly dividend is cut below $0.85 per share.
Why it matters: Normalized FFO shows how much money Welltower makes. A miss means lower earnings.
Worry ifNormalized FFO reported below $1.55 per share for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNormalized FFO meets or exceeds $1.55 per share for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A rise above this level could show more debt. This might lead to cash flow worries.
Worry ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA remains at or below 3.0x.
Less concerning ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA rises above 3.0x.
Why it matters: Finishing these sales shows good capital management. It may also improve cash for future investments.
Supportive ifThey announced they completed $3.5 billion in sales.
Worry ifNot completing the planned $3.5 billion in sales.
Why it matters: An increase would indicate stronger financial health and management confidence. It aligns with growth goals.
Supportive ifManagement raises net income guidance in Q2 earnings call.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers net income guidance in Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: A lower dividend may mean less cash flow. This can make investors feel less confident.
Worry ifThe Board declares a dividend of $0.85 per share or higher.
Less concerning ifThe Board declares a dividend below $0.85 per share.
Why it matters: Selling this portfolio helps Welltower's plan. It will also boost cash flow.
Supportive ifThe $7.2 billion outpatient medical portfolio sales will be done by mid-2026.
Worry ifSales of the outpatient medical portfolio fail to close by mid-2026.
Why it matters: This guidance shows possible problems with making money. It may worry investors.
Worry ifNet income guidance remains below $3.11 per diluted share.
Less concerning ifNet income guidance revised upward to above $3.19 per diluted share.
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial for confirming the strength of Welltower's core business. A drop below this level may signal weakening demand or operational issues.
Worry ifSeniors Housing Operating NOI growth is reported at 18.5% or higher for Q3.
Less concerning ifSeniors Housing Operating NOI growth falls below 18.5% for Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $224 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,261 loss on $10,000 · 12.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.