Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.03+3.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WGO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
WGO — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 20, 2026, Winnebago Industries, Inc., Winnebago of Indiana, LLC, Grand Design RV, LLC and Newmar Corporation (collectively, the “Borrowers”) entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among the Borrowers, the other loan parties party thereto from time to time, the lenders party thereto from time to time and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as the administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”). The Cred…
Why it matters: Dividends reflect financial health. A change could signal confidence or concern about cash flow.
Watch forThe company raises the dividend payment to over $0.35 per share.
Also watch forThe company cuts the dividend payment below $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: Lower shipments show ongoing demand problems in the RV market. This could hurt revenue.
Worry ifRV wholesale shipments were below 290,000 units for 2026.
Less concerning ifRV wholesale shipments were above 310,000 units for 2026.
Why it matters: This redemption is meant to strengthen the balance sheet. Its effect on cash flow will show if the strategy is working.
Watch forCash flow improves a lot after redemption. This means a stronger balance sheet.
Also watch forCash flow does not improve or worsens after the redemption, suggesting financial strain.
Why it matters: Operating income shows how well the company controls costs and makes more money.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $23.0 million in Q3 FY 2026.
Worry ifOperating income remains below $23.0 million in Q3 FY 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,469 loss on $10,000 · 44.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue and profit trends continue or worsen. Investors will react to changes in guidance and performance.
Watch forEarnings per diluted share is over $0.51. This shows the company is making more money.
Also watch forEarnings per diluted share is under $0.51. This shows the company is facing challenges.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Winnebago. A strong report would show demand recovery.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 net revenues exceed $698.7 million, showing growth from the previous quarter.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, net revenues drop below $698.7 million. This shows ongoing demand problems.
Why it matters: Shifts in consumer sentiment can impact demand for RVs. This is crucial for Winnebago's growth strategy.
Watch forConsumer sentiment indicators are better. This leads to more demand for RVs.
Also watch forConsumer sentiment indicators are worse. This leads to less demand for RVs.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 6% would signal weakening demand in a tough market. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net revenues grow less than 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net revenues grow 6% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margins shows good cost management and pricing. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifGross margin remains stable or improves above 13.6% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 13.6% in Q3 2026. This shows cost pressures.
Why it matters: More cash flow shows better operations and stronger financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $1 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains below $1 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New products are key for margins. If margins drop, it may show poor market reception.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 13% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays at or above 13% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More debt reduction would make the balance sheet stronger. It would also improve financial stability.
Supportive ifThey announced plans to pay off or lower their debt.
Worry ifAnnouncement of new debt issuance or no debt reduction.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target shows the company is executing its revenue growth strategy well. It reflects demand stability in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 6% YoY or better, indicating strong execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 6% compared to last year. This shows demand or execution issues.
Why it matters: Changes in shipment guidance show management's view on market demand. This can affect investors.
Watch forGuidance is raised to over 310,000 units for 2026. This shows confidence in demand.
Also watch forGuidance is cut below 290,000 units. This shows a more negative outlook.
Why it matters: New products can drive sales growth and improve market share, especially in the Motorhome RV segment.
Supportive ifSales from new products help increase revenue in the Motorhome RV segment year over year.
Worry ifSales from new products do not contribute to revenue growth in the Motorhome RV segment.
Why it matters: An increase would show a focus on giving value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share reported at $0.36 or higher in Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.35 or lower in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance shows profit problems. This could mean more challenges ahead.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance was below $1.05 for Fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS guidance was above $1.40 for Fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends show management's trust in cash flow and financial health. This affects investors.
Watch forQuarterly dividend payment is now over $0.35 per share.
Also watch forQuarterly dividend payment is now under $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: A revenue drop greater than 10% would signal worsening demand and market conditions.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $628 million, which is a 10% decline from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is over $628 million. This shows stable or better demand.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how management thinks profits will change. It helps check how well the company is doing.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per diluted share guidance for Q3 is above $1.05.
Less concerning ifAdjusted earnings per diluted share guidance for Q3 is below $1.05.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company manages costs and prices well. This is important for profits.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves to above 14% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines below 13% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The shipment guidance will show how management views demand in the RV market. It reflects the overall health of the RV sector.
Watch forNorth American RV shipment guidance is now over 310,000 units.
Also watch forNorth American RV shipment guidance is now under 290,000 units.