Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Winmark (WINA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$277.51+3.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.49 → 11.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WINA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities near $11.9 million | Cash flow stays strong near $11.9 million. | Broken | cash from operating activities falls below $11.8 million | Cash from operations: $12.941M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.8 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 14, 202612,941,300 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WINA is a durable-business thesis with a premium valuation, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, and momentum has improved, but the latest earnings miss and repeated recent misses keep execution risk elevated.
WINA trades at a substantial premium to peers, reflecting a view that its business can sustain stronger performance. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so current expectations appear demanding, though the evidence does not show a broad stack of weak execution and turbulence already priced in.
Near term, the run of earnings misses and a 47% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk. Recent performance remains in the top half of its industry, while advertising-fund revenue has begun to contribute and management has delivered on the stated advertising and dividend priorities. Cash-flow delivery is mixed, and the recent momentum signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would add to concern about execution, while steadier results would support the view that the business remains on track. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on continued growth in advertising-fund revenue and cash generation. Consumer Discretionary bellwethers provide a sector signal: continued strong results would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
The 1-3 year thesis remains intact, supported by improving momentum and recent relative business strength, but the expensive valuation and recurring earnings misses make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Winmark raises its quarterly dividend to $1.02 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $1.02 |
Dividend per share: $1.02 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.02 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 14, 20261.02 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 5 supplied quarters. Management reported: “ “During the quarter, Winmark launched the North American Advertising Fund for Plato’s Closet and recently delivered a point-of-sale pilot at one of our franchised locations.” ““We are launching a North American Ad Fund for Plato’s Closet as well as modernizing the point-of-sale offering for our franchisees.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
EPS at least $2.71 for fiscal year 2025 | Analysts expect earnings per share of $11.88 for 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.71 for fiscal year 2025 | Diluted EPS: $3.21 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.71 per share. Target period ends 2025-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 14, 20263.21 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.49 → $11.13 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.49 | $94,526,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.13 | $140,281,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.