Winmark (WINA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$318.17+0.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WINA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 46.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers
WINA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-15
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 15, 2026, Winmark Corporation (the “Company”) announced in a press release its results of operations and financial condition for the second quarter ended June 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue shows ongoing problems in the market.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines year over year worse than -5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: This fund aims to boost marketing and support franchisees. Its success could enhance revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe company announced the North American Ad Fund has started.
Worry ifNo announcement or delays in launching the Ad Fund.
Why it matters: Dividend payments show that a company is doing well. They also help shareholders.
Watch forIf the dividend payment is on time, it shows the company is stable.
Also watch forThe dividend payment is late or canceled, which may mean financial problems.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is important. It helps keep dividends and fund growth.
Watch forOperating cash flow is more than $15 million. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forOperating cash flow is below $10 million. This suggests possible problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $459 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,696 loss on $10,000 · 37.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new board member's experience may influence marketing strategies and franchise growth.
Watch forManagement points out good changes in strategy or performance from the new board member.
Also watch forNo clear changes in strategy or performance after the new board member joined.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is key for funding dividends and growth initiatives.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is over $11 million for two straight quarters.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below $10 million for two straight quarters.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports dividend payments and growth plans. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $X in the next earnings.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $X in the next earnings.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well Winmark helps its franchisees and grows.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of a successful launch and good feedback from franchisees.
Worry ifNo updates or negative feedback from franchisees about the Ad Fund.
Why it matters: This report will show if Winmark's revenue and profit trends are improving or declining.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $2.81, showing growth compared to Q2 results.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $2.50, indicating further decline.