Winmark (WINA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$277.51+3.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WINA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 44.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WINA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 14, 2026, Winmark Corporation (the “Company”) announced in a press release its results of operations and financial condition for the third quarter ended September 26, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Winmark says it is updating store technology. The Q3 release notes a pilot at one store, so wider use is the next clear test.
Supportive ifWinmark reports that the point-of-sale system has moved beyond one pilot store to more franchise stores.
Worry ifA later company report still cites only the one-store pilot or says the rollout is late.
Why it matters: The fund brought in $3.83 million in Q3, with the same amount recorded as an expense. Future reports can show whether the launch continues.
Watch forA later quarterly report shows North American ad fund revenue above $3.83 million. Ad fund expense matches it.
Also watch forA later report shows ad fund revenue below $3.83 million or no ad fund revenue.
Why it matters: Q3 diluted earnings per share rose to $3.21, while nine-month earnings per share fell to $8.51 from $8.61. Q4 shows whether the yearly decline continues.
Worry ifQ4 diluted earnings per share is below $3.21, the Q3 2026 result.
Less concerning ifQ4 diluted earnings per share is at least $3.21.
Why it matters: Winmark had 1,398 open franchises in Q3 and 79 awarded but not open. A lower count would point to slower store growth.
Worry ifThe next reported open franchise count is below 1,398.
Less concerning ifThe next reported open franchise count is above 1,398.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $434 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,413 loss on $10,000 · 44.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Winmark plans to start these brand campaigns in 2027. Their launch would show the ad fund plan is reaching more brands.
Supportive ifThe two funds start campaigns in 2027, as announced, with ad fund revenue reported for both brands.
Worry ifBy the end of 2027, either campaign has not started or no ad fund revenue is reported.