Wingstop (WING)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$109.21-0.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WING
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $109 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 38× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $165 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $155–$280. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $200.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $197.92 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $306.56 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $19.55 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$155.00 – $280.00 (median $200.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-08-03
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 73% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 4.5 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.13/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $51.87 |
| 11.1 |
| 8.28 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $108.04 | 22.9 | 4.71 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $108.75 | 21.5 | 5.07 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $24.31 | 0.9 | 26.45 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $233.53 | 52.5 | 4.45 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $169.65 | 38.1 | 4.45 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $79.32 | 16.9 | 4.71 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $164.32 | 22.9 | 7.17 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $146.72 | 21.5 | 6.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $38.28 | 0.9 | 41.64 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $358.87 | 52.5 | 6.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $260.70 | 38.1 | 6.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $217.32 | 22.9 | 9.48 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $194.03 | 21.5 | 9.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $50.63 | 0.9 | 55.07 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $474.61 | 52.5 | 9.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $344.77 | 38.1 | 9.04 | Analyst | medium |