Wingstop (WING)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$109.21-0.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WING
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 17.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WING — President transition
Dated 2026-08-25
Senior Vice President and Chief Brand and People Officer — Donnie Upshaw: The Senior Vice President and Chief Brand and People Officer is resigning to pursue another opportunity, with no reported disagreement with the company.
Why it matters: More than 100 new openings would show strong growth momentum and confidence in the brand.
Supportive ifMore than 100 net new restaurant openings reported in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 80 net new restaurant openings reported in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Increased buybacks would indicate strong cash flow and confidence in the stock's value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases announced that exceed $100 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks are planned for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A larger decline in same store sales would signal ongoing consumer pressure and impact growth.
Worry ifDomestic same store sales decline worse than -8% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDomestic same store sales decline less than -4%.
Why it matters: The dividend shows how strong the company is and its promise to shareholders. Changes can show how much management believes in the company.
Watch forThe board declares a dividend higher than $0.30 per share.
Also watch forThe board suspends or lowers the dividend from $0.30 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$239 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $659 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,466 loss on $10,000 · 64.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is key for funding growth and paying dividends. A decline could signal operational issues.
Worry ifCash from operations shows an increase above $63.87 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCash from operations falls below $61.38 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New franchise openings would show confidence in the brand and growth strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least 50 net new franchise openings in Q2.
Worry ifFewer than 20 net new franchise openings announced in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A costs can hurt profits. Watching these costs shows how well Wingstop controls spending.
Worry ifSG&A expense remains below $151 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifSG&A expense exceeds $154 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Same store sales growth is key to showing recovery in customer demand. A positive trend would indicate a turnaround.
Supportive ifDomestic same store sales growth turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifDomestic same store sales growth remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Steady Adjusted EBITDA growth shows strong performance. It also shows good cost management.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Few share buybacks may show less trust in stock value or cash flow.
Worry ifShare buybacks are less than $50 million under the $300 million authorization.
Less concerning ifShare buybacks are more than $100 million less than the $300 million limit.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show that management wants to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced big share buybacks from the $300 million plan.
Worry ifNo share buybacks have been reported under the new plan.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe board announces a quarterly dividend of $0.33 or higher for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe board announces a dividend lower than $0.33 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may show changes in the consumer discretionary sector. It could mean bigger economic problems.
Worry ifWingstop will report revenue growth that is lower than its usual average in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifWingstop keeps revenue growth that is higher than its usual average.
Why it matters: Slowing unit growth shows problems in expansion. This could affect long-term growth goals.
Worry ifGlobal unit growth rate reported below 15% for 2026.
Less concerning ifGlobal unit growth rate reported at 16% or higher for 2026.
Why it matters: A higher dividend means strong cash flow. It also shows management cares about returning value.
Supportive ifManagement announces a quarterly dividend increase. It will be above $0.33 for each share.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the quarterly dividend to $0.33 or less.