Wingstop (WING)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$167.62+3.74%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WING
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WING — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-28
Other Events Quarterly Dividend On October 27, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.33 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable on December 4, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on November 13, 2026. The declaration of any future dividends is subject to the Board’s discretion.
Why it matters: Wingstop lowered its yearly cost outlook, but it still includes restructuring charges. Results above the range would weaken the cost-control case.
Supportive ifWingstop reports 2026 SG&A of $138 million to $140 million. This includes the stated $3 million in restructuring charges.
Worry ifWingstop reports 2026 SG&A above $140 million or raises its outlook above that level.
Why it matters: Wingstop cut its 2026 sales outlook to a 6.5% to 7% decline. A smaller drop would extend the recent improvement.
Supportive ifA later report shows domestic same-store sales fell less than 6.5% in 2026. Or, sales rose from a year earlier in any quarter.
Worry ifA later report shows domestic same-store sales down more than 7% in 2026, or a quarterly drop greater than Q3's 5.4%.
Why it matters: New stores are adding sales while same-store sales fall. Meeting the opening range would support Wingstop's expansion plan.
Supportive ifWingstop reports 440 to 450 net new global restaurants for 2026, or unit growth of 14.4% to 14.7%.
Worry ifWingstop reports fewer than 440 net new global restaurants or unit growth below 14.4% for 2026.
Why it matters: Q3 food, repair, rent, and labor costs rose as a share of company-store sales. More cost pressure could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifCompany-store cost of sales stays at or above 78.2% of sales in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifCompany-store cost of sales falls below 78.2% of sales in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$232 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $668 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,558 loss on $10,000 · 65.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.