Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Wingstop (WING)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$165.73-1.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.34 → 5.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WING yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain strong cash from operations | Its strong cash flow supports growth and shareholder returns. | Broken | quarterly cash from operations falls below $50 million | Cash from operations: $61.333M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $60 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202661,333,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WING is a restaurant growth business with a durable-premium profile, supported by ongoing restaurant expansion. The long-term thesis is intact, but the latest earnings reduced momentum and shifted the signal to mixed.
The shares are expensive versus peers, reflecting expectations of a lasting business premium. The valuation model has low confidence, and its expectations gap is slightly negative, while the priced-in assessment finds low fragility rather than a broad stack of risks.
Near term, domestic same-store sales remain weak, although the decline narrowed from 8.7% in Q1 to 5.4% in Q3. Restaurant expansion is on track, and revenue rose from Q1 to Q3, but management has made limited substantive progress toward sustained same-store sales growth. A recent earnings beat is positive, while the overall signal is mixed and risk is elevated.
The multi-year view depends on whether same-store sales return to sustained growth while restaurant expansion continues. A guidance cut from the currently reaffirmed outlook would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WING’s growth thesis has support from new restaurants, but the sales recovery is still unproven and the valuation leaves little room for weak execution. The thesis remains intact, with the next evidence centered on guidance and sustained same-store sales progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Wingstop's published investment case. The stated target is 15% to 16% annual growth. |
| Intact |
| annual global unit growth falls below 12% |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Additionally, the Company reiterates guidance for 2026: • Global unit growth rate of 15% to 16%; • Interest expense, net of approximately $43 million; and • Depreciation and amortization of approximately $30 million.” “2 Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance • Flat to low-single digit domestic same store sales growth; • Global unit growth rate of 15% to 16%; • SG&A of between $151 - $154 million, which includes $3 million of restructuring charges related to corporate realignment; • Stock-based compensation expense of approximately $32 million; • Interest expense, net of approximately $43 million; and • Depreciation and amortization of approximately $30 million.” Revenue was $185.131 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase quarterly dividend to $0.30 per share | The company pays a steady $0.30 quarterly dividend. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.25 | Dividend per share: $0.33 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20260.33 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.54 → $5.03 · observed estimates
$0.90B → $0.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.54 | $897,123,272 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.54 | $897,123,272 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.54 | $897,123,272 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.54 | $897,123,272 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.54 | $896,899,551 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.54 | $896,584,282 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.43 | $891,300,157 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.38 | $889,663,703 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.38 | $889,663,703 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.37 | $888,816,852 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.37 | $888,816,852 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.37 | $888,816,852 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.37 | $888,816,852 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.37 | $888,816,852 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.36 | $888,111,852 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.36 | $888,512,307 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.36 | $888,512,307 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.36 | $888,512,307 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.36 | $888,512,307 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.36 | $888,512,307 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.36 | $888,512,307 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.36 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.36 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.36 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.36 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.36 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.36 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.36 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.36 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.35 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.35 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.35 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.35 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.35 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.35 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.35 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.35 | $888,514,192 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.35 | $888,370,423 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.35 | $887,775,838 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.35 | $887,775,838 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.35 | $887,775,838 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.35 | $887,775,838 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.35 | $887,775,838 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.35 | $887,775,838 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.35 | $887,775,838 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.35 | $887,775,838 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.34 | $886,768,150 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.34 | $886,768,150 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.34 | $886,768,150 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.34 | $886,768,150 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.34 | $886,768,150 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.34 | $886,768,150 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.34 | $886,768,150 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.34 | $887,118,876 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.34 | $887,118,876 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.34 | $887,118,876 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.34 | $887,117,832 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.34 | $887,117,832 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.34 | $887,117,832 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.34 | $887,117,832 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.34 | $887,117,832 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.34 | $887,117,832 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.34 | $887,117,832 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.34 | $887,117,832 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.34 | $887,117,832 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.34 | $887,156,132 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.34 | $887,156,132 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.34 | $887,156,132 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.34 | $887,156,132 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.34 | $886,954,172 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.34 | $886,954,172 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.34 | $886,390,172 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.33 | $884,818,997 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.33 | $884,818,997 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.32 | $884,489,260 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.32 | $884,489,260 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.32 | $884,325,260 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.32 | $884,564,660 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.32 | $883,537,537 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.30 | $882,402,537 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.29 | $881,693,337 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.29 | $881,693,337 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.29 | $881,693,337 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.29 | $881,693,337 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.30 | $881,015,706 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.15 | $868,273,865 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.06 | $859,442,052 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.03 | $856,180,135 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.03 | $856,180,135 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.03 | $856,180,135 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.03 | $856,180,135 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.03 | $856,180,135 | 17 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 16 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.