Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Willis Lease Finance Corp. (WLFC)
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.65+10.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.06 → 5.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WLFC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share | Willis Lease Finance pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share. | Intact | quarterly dividend falls below $0.40 per share | Dividend per share: $0.25 per share FY2025-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.40 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2025-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. May 6, 20250.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WLFC is a growth-oriented, cyclical leasing business, with robust earnings quality but elevated risk. Its multi-year view is intact, and the recent signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though recent financial performance is neutral and management execution is volatile.
The evidence describes WLFC as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear more cautious than the valuation model’s view of fundamentals. Pricing is tagged as justified, and fragility is low, but confidence in the valuation model is medium.
Near term, growth priorities show evidence of progress: AUM reached $4.4 billion, lease rent revenue was up year over year in Q2, and total revenue was higher year over year in Q1. The capital strategy is less proven, while erratic earnings surprises, a high-miss-rate industry, and a weakening jobs trend add near-term risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in the lease portfolio and rent revenue, along with effective funding of that growth. Near term, industrial-sector bellwethers offer a signal: continued strong results could sustain a helpful sector backdrop, while misses or weaker guidance could remove that support. Further labor-market weakness could also increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WLFC’s growth evidence supports an intact thesis, but its cyclical exposure and uneven execution leave meaningful uncertainty. The valuation looks cheap versus peers, while the outlook depends on continued lease growth and a stable industrial backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Willis Lease Finance Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is no major shareholder rejections or governance controversies. |
| Under Pressure |
| repeat or worsening shareholder rejection of governance |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or grow revenue near consensus | A primary condition in Willis Lease Finance Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -0.5% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | revenue growth falls below -0.5% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Announce and execute share buyback program | The company announced a share buyback program, showing commitment to returning capital. | Intact | no buyback activity after announcement within 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.97 → $5.88 · observed estimates
$0.76B → $0.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $17.97 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.99 | $761,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.87 | $769,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.06 | $801,860,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.88 | $775,625,735 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.88 | $775,625,735 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.88 | $775,625,735 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.88 | $775,625,735 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.88 | $775,625,735 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.88 | $775,625,735 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.88 | $775,625,735 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.88 | $775,598,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.