Willis Lease Finance Corp. (WLFC)
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$56.22+1.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WLFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WLFC — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-25
by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated…
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.40 dividend shows the company is stable. It shows good cash flow.
Supportive ifThe company announces a $0.40 dividend for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Higher sales gains show strong demand and good asset management.
Supportive ifGains on sale of leased equipment exceed $32 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGains on sale of leased equipment fall below $25 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lawsuit results can affect money and operations. Bad outcomes could hurt the company's image.
Worry ifThe company wins the litigation filed on July 10, 2026.
Less concerning ifThe company loses the lawsuit or faces more legal issues.
Why it matters: Lawsuit results can affect financial health and how investors feel.
Worry ifLawsuit results are good and do not lead to major financial penalties.
Less concerning ifLawsuits lead to big financial penalties or bad rulings for the company.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector sees revenue growth pick up, it could benefit Willis Lease. This would signal a stronger market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Maintenance revenue growth is crucial for overall performance. It shows how well the company manages its assets.
Supportive ifMaintenance revenue grows from $7.5 million in Q2 2026 to above $10 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifMaintenance revenue stays below $7.5 million.
Why it matters: The buyback program shows that management believes in the company. It can also help the share price.
Supportive ifThe company shares details about starting the share buyback program.
Worry ifThere are no updates or details about the buyback program.
Why it matters: Growth in assets under management shows strong demand for WLFC's leasing services.
Supportive ifAssets under management grow more than 21% year over year.
Worry ifAssets under management grow less than 21% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower growth in lease rent revenue could indicate weakening demand or pricing power.
Worry ifLease rent revenue grows less than 6.7% year over year.
Less concerning ifLease rent revenue grows equal to or more than 6.7% year over year.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares the quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share again.
Worry ifThe Board reduces the quarterly dividend below $0.40 per share.
Why it matters: Growing the lease portfolio is key to revenue. Continued growth supports management's strategy.
Supportive ifLease portfolio value increases from $2,956.3 million in Q2 2026 to above $3 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLease portfolio value declines or stays below $2,956.3 million.
Why it matters: The dividend amount shows how management uses money after the stock split.
Watch forThe Board declares a quarterly dividend equal to or greater than $0.133 per share.
Also watch forThe Board declares a quarterly dividend less than $0.133 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$182 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $470 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,320 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.