Willis Lease Finance Corp. (WLFC)
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.65+10.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WLFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WLFC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release setting forth the Company’s results from operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026 and financial condition as of September 30, 2026. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information and exhibit furnished under this
Why it matters: WLFC reported $4.4 billion in assets under management in Q2. The WNG II deal adds a test of continued growth.
Supportive ifA later company update reports AUM above $4.4 billion and links growth to the WNG II acquisition.
Worry ifA later company update reports AUM at or below $4.4 billion, with no stated growth from the deal.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose, but net income fell and debt costs rose. Q3 results can show whether that gap persists.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA grows from last year. Net income for common shareholders also grows.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA or net income for common shareholders falls from last year.
Why it matters: WLFC declared $0.15 per share, up 12.8% from its prior payment. A completed payment would confirm this cash return.
Supportive ifWLFC pays $0.15 per share on November 25, 2026, as announced.
Worry ifWLFC delays, cuts, or cancels the $0.15 payment before or on November 25.
Why it matters: Q2 lease rent rose 6.7% year over year as the portfolio grew. Another gain would support this growth trend.
Supportive ifOn November 3, WLFC reports Q3 lease rent revenue growth above 6.7% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 lease rent revenue growth is below 6.7% year over year or turns negative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$204 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $470 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,378 loss on $10,000 · 53.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The board renewed the plan through 2031. Actual purchases would show that WLFC is using it.
Supportive ifA company filing states the amount and date of common stock repurchases under the plan.
Worry ifA later company update reports no repurchases under the plan. Or, the plan ends before any purchases.