Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
John Wiley & Sons (WLY)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.47-3.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.30 → 5.30 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WLY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand Adjusted EBITDA margin to at least 17.7% | A primary condition in John Wiley & Sons's published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA margin >= 17.7%. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 15.1% next fiscal year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WLY is an execution-dependent business with growth in Research and AI data services alongside a cost-efficiency effort. Its long-term thesis is intact, but recent momentum has weakened and the company remains loss-making.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says WLY is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 79% premium to peers, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap points to a demanding setup rather than clear room for error.
Near term, a recent earnings beat followed an earlier miss, while momentum fell sharply and the signal shifted to mixed. Over the multi-year view, Research and AI revenue growth, wider margins, and stronger cash generation support progress, though the company is still loss-making and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
The thesis depends on continued growth in Research and AI services and on further efficiency gains translating into cash generation. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative; easier interest rates or continued strength among sector bellwethers could provide support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WLY’s long-term thesis rests on management sustaining growth and cash-flow progress despite weak momentum, sector headwinds, and an expensive overall valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter rose 300 basis points to 37.7%.” “• Full year Research revenue of $1,130 million was up 5% as reported and 4% CC, driven by growth in recurring revenue models (subscriptions and transformational agreements), gold open access, and AI licensing.”
Return at least $174 million to shareholders including $100 million in buybacks | The company returned $174 million to shareholders in fiscal 2026, including $100 million in repurchases. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $137 million or buybacks below prior year levels next fiscal year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow Free Cash Flow to at least $195 million | Free cash flow rose 55% to $195 million, supporting dividends and buybacks. | Intact | Free Cash Flow falls below $126 million next fiscal year | Free cash flow: $-66.469M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Free Cash Flow >= $195 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 4, 2026-66,469,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Full year Adjusted EBITDA of $375 million was up 8% (CC).” “Adjusted EBITDA margin for the year rose 110 basis points to 33.2%.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain mid-single digit growth in Research and double-digit growth in AI revenue | A primary condition in John Wiley & Sons's published investment case. The stated target is AI revenue >= $49 million and Research revenue mid-single digit growth. | Intact | AI revenue falls below $49 million or Research revenue growth below mid-single digits next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Full year Research revenue of $1,130 million was up 5% as reported and 4% CC, driven by growth in recurring revenue models (subscriptions and transformational agreements), gold open access, and AI licensing.” “Growth trends remained favorable, with submissions and output up significantly.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.30 → $5.30 · observed estimates
$1.81B → $1.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.30 | $1,810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.