John Wiley & Sons (WLY)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.47-3.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
WLY — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-07-09
Corporate Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer — Frank Scognamiglio: Frank Scognamiglio was promoted to Chief Accounting Officer, succeeding Christopher Caridi.
Why it matters: Wiley bought Emerald to expand Research and plans $30 million in cost savings. Reaching that target would support the deal's value.
Supportive ifWiley reports $30 million in savings tied to Emerald. It says the integration is on schedule.
Worry ifWiley lowers its $30 million savings target. Or it says the Emerald integration is behind schedule.
Why it matters: Wiley tied its outlook to AI growth. More licensing revenue would back that plan with reported sales.
Supportive ifA later FY2027 quarter reports AI licensing revenue above Q1's $14 million.
Worry ifA later FY2027 quarter reports AI licensing revenue of $14 million or less. The pipeline stops growing.
Why it matters: Wiley expects Emerald to reduce FY2027 free cash flow by $15 million. A larger hit would put its $205 million cash goal at risk.
Worry ifFY2027 free cash flow is below $205 million, or Wiley reports Emerald cash use above the planned $15 million.
Less concerning ifFY2027 free cash flow reaches at least $205 million, with Emerald's cash use at or below $15 million.
Why it matters: Research grew 4% in Q1, while publishing rose 12%. Continued growth would support Wiley's main growth engine.
Supportive ifIn Q2 FY2027, Research revenue grows year over year, with Research Publishing still growing.
Worry ifIn Q2 FY2027, Research revenue falls year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $369 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,379 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Learning revenue fell 20% at constant currency. Management said it expects the market to stabilize as comparisons ease.
Watch forLearning revenue declines by less than 20% year over year at constant currency in Q2 FY2027.
Also watch forLearning revenue falls by 20% or more year over year at constant currency in Q2 FY2027.