John Wiley & Sons (WLY)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$48.19-4.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WLY — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-07-09
Corporate Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer — Frank Scognamiglio: Frank Scognamiglio was promoted to Chief Accounting Officer, succeeding Christopher Caridi.
Why it matters: Emerald's revenue shows how well Wiley uses new assets.
Watch forEmerald adds more than $78 million to Wiley's revenue in fiscal 2027.
Also watch forEmerald adds less than $78 million to revenue in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Wider margins show better cost management. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is more than 27.5%.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is less than 26.5%.
Why it matters: Integrating Emerald will boost Wiley's research skills and income. It helps their growth plan.
Supportive ifEmerald will save about $30 million from the acquisition by year two.
Worry ifEmerald acquisition synergies fall short of $30 million by year two.
Why it matters: Kowalski's leadership may speed up growth in AI and data services for Wiley.
Supportive ifWiley sees strong growth in AI and data services under Kowalski's leadership.
Worry ifAI and data services revenue does not grow or falls despite Kowalski's leadership.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $353 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,044 loss on $10,000 · 30.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better Free Cash Flow shows improved cash management. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow exceeds $205 million for the quarter.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow remains below $195 million.
Why it matters: Growth in AI licensing revenue shows strong demand and supports Wiley's strategic focus on AI.
Supportive ifAI licensing revenue grows year over year by more than 20%.
Worry ifAI licensing revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: This will show if buying Emerald Publishing increases Research revenue as planned.
Supportive ifResearch revenue grows by more than 5% year over year in Q1 2027.
Worry ifResearch revenue growth is less than 2% year over year in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving margins is key for making money and running well.
Supportive ifAdjusted Operating Margin is more than 17.7% in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted Operating Margin is less than 17.0% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in Learning revenue shows market weakness. This affects overall growth.
Worry ifLearning revenue down year over year worse than -20%.
Less concerning ifLearning revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.