Waste Management (WM)
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$218.99-1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WM
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $219 WM trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 26× p/e peer median — but our blended $165 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $245 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $267.20 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $450.89 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $53.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $65.54 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $4.31/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $218.44 |
| 15.6 |
| 17.63 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $189.74 | 21.4 | 8.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $201.02 | 26.0 | 7.74 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $201.01 | 3.2 | 63.78 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $367.68 | 47.5 | 7.74 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $45.23 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $228.48 | 29.5 | 7.74 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $202.99 | 26.0 | 7.82 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $288.57 | 21.4 | 13.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $250.87 | 26.0 | 9.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $230.79 | 3.2 | 73.24 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $458.86 | 47.5 | 9.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $285.14 | 29.5 | 9.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $381.63 | 21.4 | 17.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $267.92 | 26.0 | 10.32 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $246.48 | 3.2 | 78.21 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $490.05 | 47.5 | 10.32 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $304.52 | 29.5 | 10.32 | Analyst | high |