Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Waste Management (WM)
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$238.49+1.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.06 → 8.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted operating EBITDA margin expands above 30.8% | A primary condition in Waste Management's published investment case. The stated target is >=30.8%. | Improving | Adjusted operating EBITDA margin falls below 30.8% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WM is a relatively steady operating business with growth initiatives, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, while the latest earnings miss and mixed cost results temper the near-term picture.
The valuation is tagged as stretched, and WM trades at a slight premium to peers. Expectations and the valuation signal are broadly aligned, with no evidence of unusually fragile pricing; the expectations gap is modest.
Over the multi-year view, continued growth in recycling, renewable energy, and Healthcare Solutions could support the business: the new renewable natural gas facility and strong Healthcare Solutions operating results show progress. Cost execution is mixed, with improved adjusted SG&A but a higher operating-expense ratio in the latest quarter. Near term, the latest earnings miss and a history of recent misses make the next results and any guidance change important.
The thesis depends on management continuing to deliver growth projects and improve efficiency while integrating Healthcare Solutions. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
For the next one to three years, WM’s growth initiatives and earnings quality support an intact long-term thesis, but stretched valuation, mixed cost performance, and recent earnings misses are meaningful caveats. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow rises nearly 30% to about $3.8 billion. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow growth falls below 29.4% in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $983M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=29.4% growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026983,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Healthcare Solutions operating EBITDA grows and synergies reach $300 million by 2027 | Healthcare Solutions integration adds margin and revenue growth. | Intact | Healthcare Solutions EBITDA growth falls below 18% or synergies miss $300 million by 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Notably, Healthcare Solutions revenue grew 3.7% in the quarter and operating EBITDA increased more than 30%, driven by effective cost management, synergy capture, and pricing growth.” “Overall, adjusted operating EBITDA margin compressed by 10 basis points compared to the prior year period.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows about 5.2% in FY26 | Waste Management grows revenue about 5% a year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5.2% in FY26 | Revenue: $6.846B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5.2% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20266,846,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.17 → $8.89 · observed estimates
$27.99B → $27.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.17 | $27,994,583,286 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.21 | $28,011,970,130 | 28 / 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.21 | $28,011,970,130 | 28 / 25 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.17 | $27,994,583,286 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.17 | $27,994,583,286 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.21 | $28,011,970,130 | 28 / 25 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.21 | $28,011,970,130 | 28 / 25 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.09 | $27,811,929,052 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.09 | $27,811,929,052 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.09 | $27,805,129,052 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.09 | $27,805,129,052 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.09 | $27,805,129,052 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.14 | $27,831,504,590 | 28 / 26 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.09 | $27,805,129,052 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.14 | $27,828,345,900 | 28 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.08 | $27,791,818,032 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.06 | $27,784,997,650 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.06 | $27,785,004,546 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.06 | $27,784,874,111 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.06 | $27,784,874,111 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.06 | $27,784,874,111 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.06 | $27,784,874,111 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.06 | $27,784,874,111 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.06 | $27,784,874,111 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.06 | $27,784,874,111 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.06 | $27,784,884,472 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.06 | $27,784,890,094 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.06 | $27,784,890,094 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.06 | $27,784,890,094 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.06 | $27,784,890,094 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.06 | $27,784,890,094 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.06 | $27,784,890,094 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.06 | $27,784,890,094 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.06 | $27,784,890,094 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.07 | $27,789,936,340 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.07 | $27,789,936,340 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.07 | $27,789,936,340 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.07 | $27,789,936,340 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.07 | $27,790,048,357 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.07 | $27,795,965,023 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.07 | $27,795,965,023 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.06 | $27,799,252,565 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.06 | $27,799,252,565 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.06 | $27,799,252,565 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.06 | $27,799,252,565 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.06 | $27,799,252,565 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.05 | $27,817,627,565 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.04 | $27,810,726,417 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.04 | $27,810,726,417 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.03 | $27,817,804,003 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.03 | $27,817,804,003 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.03 | $27,817,804,003 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.03 | $27,818,548,238 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.03 | $27,827,595,414 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.04 | $27,838,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.04 | $27,838,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.04 | $27,838,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.04 | $27,838,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.04 | $27,838,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.04 | $27,838,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.04 | $27,838,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.04 | $27,844,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.04 | $27,844,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.04 | $27,844,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.04 | $27,844,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.04 | $27,844,402,060 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.04 | $27,844,380,006 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.91 | $27,852,621,667 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.90 | $27,867,463,640 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.89 | $27,864,673,158 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.89 | $27,864,673,158 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.89 | $27,864,673,158 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.89 | $27,864,673,158 | 18 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.89 | $27,864,673,158 | 18 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.