Waste Management (WM)
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$218.99-1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue grows about 5.2% in FY26: FY26 guidance +4.0% vs 5.2% target.
Waste Management grows revenue about 5% a year. Profit margins expand above 30.8%. Free cash flow rises nearly 30% to about $3.8 billion. Healthcare Solutions integration adds margin and revenue growth.
Revenue growth could slow below 5%. Profit margins may compress under cost pressures. Free cash flow growth might stall if capital spending rises or synergies lag.
The price is about 30% above our fair value near $179. Analysts expect roughly 7% revenue growth, which is slightly above management's 5.2% guidance. Our view is more cautious on growth but aligned on margin and cash flow expansion.
Breaks if: Adjusted operating EBITDA margin falls below 30.8% in FY26
Continue disciplined pricing, cost optimization, and operational efficiency to grow adjusted operating EBITDA margin above 31% in 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.
The market seems to have a neutral view on WM's valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that some growth potential may not be fully recognized by investors.
Management is on track to expand adjusted operating EBITDA margins, increase free cash flow, and drive revenue growth. Recent results have been strong, but there is a moderate risk of missing future estimates, especially given the performance of industry peers.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like RSG, CLH, and CWST. If these companies continue to perform well, WM could benefit from positive sector momentum, but any signs of weakness could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Adjusted operating EBITDA margin grew from about 29.7% in 2024-Q4 to 31.2% in 2026-Q2, with full-year 2026 guidance at 31.0%-31.2%. Management consistently emphasized margin expansion driven by disciplined pricing and cost control, and the trajectory is delivering.
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin expanded 90 basis points, expected 31.0%-31.2% in 2026.”
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin expanded 70 basis points in Q1 2026.”
“Full-year 2025 adjusted operating EBITDA margin exceeded 30% for the first time.”
“Collection and Disposal business delivered record-setting margin, adjusted operating EBITDA margin 30.6%.”
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin was 29.9%, improved from prior year.”
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin achieved 30% for the fourth consecutive quarter.”
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin was 28.9%, a company-best performance.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow growth falls below 29.4% in FY26
Grow free cash flow through operating EBITDA growth, working capital improvements, and disciplined capital spending.
Breaks if: Healthcare Solutions EBITDA growth falls below 18% or synergies miss $300 million by 2027
Advance integration of Stericycle acquisition to capture synergies and grow Healthcare Solutions revenue and margin.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 7 quarters. Healthcare Solutions operating EBITDA grew from $95 million in 2025-Q1 to $110 million in 2025-Q2, with margin improving and integration completed by 2025-Q4. Management targets $250 million in synergies by 2027. The trajectory shows steady progress and synergy capture.
“Healthcare Solutions operating EBITDA grew driven by SG&A cost management and integration benefits.”
“Healthcare Solutions operating EBITDA grew 11.6% on adjusted basis, driven by synergy capture.”
“Healthcare Solutions margin improved to 13.5% in 2025 from 1.0% in 2024; integration completed.”
“Integration of WM Healthcare Solutions advancing, with SG&A margin improving 270 basis points.”
“Healthcare Solutions contributed $110 million adjusted operating EBITDA, on track for synergies.”
“Healthcare Solutions contributed $95 million adjusted operating EBITDA; synergy targets on track.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 5.2% in FY26
Achieve revenue between $26.275 and $26.475 billion in 2026 through disciplined pricing, volume growth, and sustainability investments.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Revenue grew from $22.063 billion in 2024 to $6.684 billion in 2026-Q2 alone, with full-year 2026 guidance at $26.275-$26.475 billion. Management's emphasis on disciplined pricing and volume growth is supported by consistent revenue increases, indicating delivery.
“Revenue grew 4.0%, driven by core price of 5.7% and Collection and Disposal yield of 3.6%.”
“Revenue grew 3.5%, driven by core price of 6.3% and collection and disposal yield of 3.9%.”
“Full-year 2025 revenue was $25.204 billion, up 14.2% from prior year.”
“Revenue grew 14.9% to $6.443 billion in Q3 2025.”
“Revenue grew 19.0% to $6.430 billion in Q2 2025.”
“Revenue grew 16.7% to $6.018 billion in Q1 2025.”
“Revenue grew 13.0% to $5.893 billion in Q4 2024.”
Overall, WM's fundamentals are strong, but external sector conditions could impact future performance. Not investment advice.