Waste Management (WM)
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$218.99-1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
WM — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-26
CEO — James C. Fish, Jr.: The CEO is retiring with a pre-announced, internal successor (President John J. Morris, Jr.) already appointed, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Finishing these plants would help WM be more sustainable. It would also increase money from renewable energy.
Supportive ifAll six renewable natural gas plants are operational by the end of 2026.
Worry ifFewer than six renewable natural gas plants start operating by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Expanding margins indicate better cost management. This is a key focus for the company.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating EBITDA margin goes up by more than 1% from last quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted operating EBITDA margin goes down or stays the same from last quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows demand for services. This affects overall performance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue meets or exceeds the guidance range of $26.275 to $26.475 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $26.0 billion.
Why it matters: Free cash flow shows how much cash Waste Management has for growth and returning to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for 2026 confirmed between $3.75 billion and $3.85 billion.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance revised down below $3.75 billion for 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $175 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,406 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new CEO's style may change Waste Management's strategy and how it works.
Watch forPositive performance metrics in Q1 2027 under new CEO John Morris.
Also watch forDecline in key performance metrics in Q1 2027 under new CEO John Morris.
Why it matters: Growth in the industrial sector could help Waste Management grow.
Supportive ifSector performance shows a positive change, improving by more than 5% over the next quarter.
Worry ifSector performance declines further by more than 5% over the next quarter.
Why it matters: Free cash flow growth supports shareholder returns and shows financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow in Q3 exceeds $1.10 billion.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q3 falls below $1.00 billion.
Why it matters: The margin shows how well Waste Management controls costs and prices. A strong margin supports growth.
Supportive ifThe operating EBITDA margin is over 31.2% in Q3.
Worry ifThe operating EBITDA margin is below 31.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Revenue growth reflects how well Waste Management is expanding its business. It affects future earnings.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 4% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 2% year over year in Q3.